AllCoreDevs update, Diva vampire attack and more - The Daily Gwei Refuel #671 - Ethereum Updates

Transcript

hello everyone welcome to another episode of The Daily gr refuel where up latest news in the eum ecosystem I'm your host Anthony s and the 13th of October 2023 all right everyone let's get into it so apologies for missing yesterday's episode everyone that is two this week that I've missed so should really Rebrand the show to the Daily way rug fuel right no uh sometimes it's going to happen obviously as I say every time I just uh sometimes run out of time and I I can't get a recording done uh but I I definitely aim to do as many as as many episodes as I can of course but hopefully next week I don't uh I don't rug any episodes there but anyway uh without further Ado let's go into the news from the last couple of days so I'm starting off here with some ETF news so

Eric Banis who I've spoken about a bunch of times on the r before he's one of the senior ETF analysts at Bloomberg uh shared that Arc uh the one of the um BTC spot ETF filers has filed an updated version of its spot Bitcoin ETF perspectus uh the SEC emailed issuers a few weeks ago with comments and questions about their S1 that they wanted uh they want it to be addressed so it's very possible Arc has answered all of that in this filing uh and then Eric says we are looking through this now and then they basically uh sorry then Eric States the changes um in his Twitter thread here which you can go check out I'll link in the YouTube description below but I think generally at this point we're all pretty convinced that the Bitcoin spot ETFs are getting approved right um we just don't know the

timing and the timing is a funny thing because as I said before on the refill the SEC can approve these ETFs anytime they want right they don't have to wait until the deadline so the deadline right now for the ark ETF is in January I think January 10th or something like that and the deadline for the rest of them is mid-march uh next year now as I said the S does not have to wait until that deadline to approve or deny obviously they can still deny but uh between now and and the Jan deadline um and the March deadline they can approve uh or deny any all any um or all of these ETFs now the common understanding is that they're going to approve or deny all of them at once I mean I'm pretty convinced that that they're going to

approve all of them at once don't know if it's going to happen in Q4 or q1 uh but as I said like the deadline for Arc is Jan so they could just wait until the deadline and do it in Jan which I would prefer as I've outlined many times on the refie before but the the reasons why I prefer that but on top of that as well there's something else that's actually happening today or maybe not happening today so the sec's deadline for filing a um appeal in the grayscale case that they lost uh so just to refresh your memory grayscale basically sued the SEC saying uh you know you denied our conversion of our trust from the the BTC trust the gbtc trust to a uh to an ETF uh and you didn't give us good reason to deny and the judge basically agree

agreed with that and so if the SEC doesn't appeal today from what I've read it seems like people think that it's you know it goes from basically 90% to 100% chance that the spot ETFs are going to get approved because if the SEC isn't appealing that case they're basically admitting defeat and basically saying well we're just going to approve the grayscale conversion and as I said before they're going to want to approve all of these ETFs at once because they don't want to play favorites they don't want to open themselves up to more lawsuits so that's not to say that the ETFs are going to get approved today right that's just to say that if they don't appeal the chances of the spot ETFs getting approved go to 100% right um at least that's from from my understanding there uh for BTC and then it's just a waiting game right of when

they want to approve it but as I said the deadline for the first one is J 10th which is Arc and then mid-march for the rest of them but the funny thing is is that i' as I've explained before they would have deny arcs one and force Arc to refile in January if they wanted to approve them all in March I don't think that's going to be the case I would put money on the fact that the latest they're going to approve this thing is the The Arc date here so the Gen 10th date but obviously as I said they can approve all of these anytime between now and then and we'll see how that plays out now as as for its impact on the markets I think I'm going to leave that for the end of the episode because I do have a bit of Market chat for you guys I

know that things are depressing right now but I hopefully I can inject some hopium into you guys guys uh by at the end of the episode but I'll leave that for for then because uh that'll just be a good way to round out the episode there but moving on from the ETF news to ethereum core Dev news so the latest all core devs call happened yesterday and of as usual Tim Boo has his tweet thread here but Andrew uh Andrew here also has a summary screenshot from Tim boo about what they discussed on the allc court Debs call so as I mentioned before devet 9 testing is still ongoing and and Tim says it's going strong uh bad blocks are being sent for testing meev pipeline testing is also in progress and some clients are debugging issues found on the network devet 10 uh is now planned

for launch next week uh which is awesome so very very close here and uh obviously um as I've said before devet 10 is probably going to be the last devet before they start forking the public test Nets and as Tim continues here the things that they want to see on devet 10 is a final kcg setup in the consensus layer specs and clients General stability of the network uh confirmed that the meev pipeline works and getting better tooling around blobs which is obviously EIP 4844 um and denune will activate shortly after Genesis uh to allow us uh to flood the deposit queue and Trigger the churn limit that's for the for the dev Net 10 here if things go well we'll start looking at scheduling girlyy so yeah I think um in terms of timelines now if they do Dev Net 10 next

week let it bake for a little bit we could expect the girly test net public test net Fork be scheduled for Mid to late November right and that was kind of the I mean the target was like early to mid November because of Dev connect but mid to late November is is basically the the you know a similar thing there so it's like a couple of weeks difference so sometime in November we can expect the girly test net to get forked um and obviously that's being done first because that's that test net is being sunset in favor of um Hol Sky which is live right now so I guess it will go girly sapoia Hol Sky I I guess the order doesn't really matter um but maybe they'll do two of them at once or something like that but really that still brings us into next year as I've

discussed before so expect 4844 in January February still there's no changes to the timelines there of course uh but yeah that's the update on that one and Tim continues saying there was a concern raised by the GU team in uh with with regards to ban requirements for EIP 4844 and they discussed that on the call and they they spent the rest of the the the call discussing the eof updates um and included how many affected l2s and such and so forth and uh how they're talking about uh Prague which is the the next update for uh happening next year so yeah that's all for the all all core devs recap there as I said you can go read Tim bikers Twitter thread I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right the ultrasound money

account on Twitter shared that the staked eth amount grew 50% since withdrawal so at time of withdrawal staked eth was at1 18 million um and now it's at 27 million so in in 6 months and so that's a growth of 50% there and the reason why they're bringing this up today is of course because as you all probably know by now the entry queue or the deposit queue for the beacon chain uh was empty today I mean I don't know if it's empty right now I can actually check that on my on my screen here I'll bring up the beacon chain website yeah there 171 entering validators but yeah at some point today it was zero so it's basically empty at this point the churn limit is actually 13 now but as you guys know that will be lowered to eight in the den upgrade so really I think

there's around 3,000 validators that can enter and exit per day but I don't expect staking to demand to spike like it did over the past 6 months ever again really um and in terms of like when we see the next big influx of staking I think it's going to have to come from the execution layer side of things because when you think about the way that the ethereum proof of stake mechanism is designed it's designed to find an equilibrium uh in terms of the consensus layer rewards which is the new eth issuance it's designed to find an equilibrium at some point and it feels like we've found that because obviously gas fees are low M payments are low so uh overall rewards a lower than what they historically have been so if we are to see another influx of eth into the um

into staking it will have to come from the fact that fees have gone up again right me payments have gone up again and the overall net yield has has gone up to make it more palatable for people now of course different things can throw uh wrenches in this you know there could be Services offering token rewards for staking um and there could be reaking which which obviously can offer token incentives there or other incentives there so there could be these kind of like uh other things that are kind of unforeseen or we don't exactly know how they're going to play out that could factor into this and the funny thing is is that if the bull market comes back in I don't know the timing is a bit hard but obviously if the bll market comes back next year right and and and demand skyrockets and we have gas fees of 50 g

plus and me is G crazy and we have reaking we have token rewards everywhere you could expect to see a pretty big influx of of steak of new eth to steak right um but and that was obviously the imp poest for getting EIP 7514 that churn limit decrease into Denon so that we don't overload the network with validators and I mean I totally get that and I've gone through that EIP a lot of times on the refi before so I'm not going to rehash it here but that's where it's going to have to come from because the consensus layer rewards uh are not changing right it's not like they're going to get lower or higher based on uh kind of people paying more fees that's just the execution layer rewards side of things the consensus layer rewards are dictated by the issuance curve which is

baked into the protocol and the only way to change that is by obviously submitting an EIP and getting it into a network upgrade which may happen sometime in the next few years uh I went over the the post from Anders the other day that covered uh a possible change or tweak to ethereum's monetary policy to make it better overall for for staking but the way it is right now it doesn't change unless people more people stake or or people withdraw their E from staking there which I don't foresee happening to be honest because and so so the way the reason why I don't foresee it happening the reason why I think we're going to be in an equilibrium for for a little while is because if you haven't unstaked by now right you're not going to unstake uh in in a big way because I think that if you are going to

unstake and and what you're going to do with that eth is sell it you're probably just going to wait for the bull market to come back to do that uh and obviously as I mentioned there's no real reason to to stake right now for people who don't want to just get whatever the yield is 3 to 4% they obviously want more than that uh and you can get more than that on your dollars obviously if you're not like bullish eth or if you don't think that way and you want a safer way to get yield you can get more than that on your dollars but obviously when you when you're talking about getting yield on eth it's eth denominated it's paid out in eth and if you are bullish on eth over the you know the next few years of course then you're obviously are going

to benefit from that as well as measured in the dollar amounts there but yeah hopefully that gives a bit of context around the current state of e staking but as I said I don't expect to see any major spikes in E staking unless uh you know the fee the fees Spike again um and that will just basically mean the bull Market's back and it will have to be like a prolonged fee spike it can't just be like a one or two day thing it has to be at at the very least a few weeks but I would say probably a couple of months for it to attract you know a huge amount of of new stake uh and in terms of exiting stake yeah I mean I don't expect that to happen until the bull market either because there's no reason to exit your stake right now um if you've been

staking for a while especially because you're just basically when you're exiting what are you going to do with it right maybe you're exiting to restake it and get an LST but I'm talking about like a net ex a net a net withdrawal right where this that that e gets sold I don't know I I don't feel like many people want to sell their eth right now because it in my opinion is the worst time to sell eth because the Market's so quiet but uh yeah we'll see how that shakes out over the next few months moving on Sigma Prime has a new UI for their block print website now on this blog print uh block print website if you go to it here actually you can see that they have a new nice UI showing client diversity on the consensus layer side of things and they're explaining obviously

where this data comes from and it comes from uh something that they created called block print and they and there's a bunch more information here which I'll link in the YouTube description for you to check out but client diversity on the consensus layer side of things is looking real good still I mean it could be better obviously if no one client was over 33% that would be ideal because right now if all the prism clients were to have a bug in them and go offline it would delay finality and we actually saw that happen recently um and and same with Lighthouse cuz Lighthouse is over 33% as well so that's why we say the goal is less than 33% but it's not exactly the danger zone because delaying finality is not going to send the chain offline or anything like that and it's not going to finalize on a on a bug

chain or anything like that um but danger over 50% definitely and obviously over 66% is critical danger like get get it below that because that then if there is a bug it could finalize on that bug chain which would require social coordination to to kind of like fix that which is obviously what we don't want to see there but yeah client diversity on the consensus layer is very healthy right now but you can go check this out I'll link it in the YouTube YouTube description below all right maybe I should have spoken about this before when I was talking about staking but David Hoffman has a new blog post out today uh talking all about Diva's vampire attack on Lio so you can go read the blog post for yourself I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so but the tldr is that something that I've

been discussing on the RO you a lot um over the past few uh past couple of months maybe DVA is doing this vampire attack where essentially they're taking in vanilla eth and St eth you're paid Diva tokens which currently aren't live that doesn't have a value right now we don't know uh kind of what the value is going to be but you paid D.A tokens for staking with with Diva and then when the but but the thing is is that like the D.A main net isn't live right now it's not actually staking anything like if you put vanilla eth in there that eth is not being stacked it's just sitting in a contract obviously if you put st e in there you're still benefiting from the fact that you're getting yield because the Ste is still auring yield because it is stake with lto but then once they

launch the diva protocol I think the launch is slated for q1 of next year the eth that the vanilla eth is going to be automatically deposited and um you're going to get Diva eth the diva alst and then the St is automatically going to be swapped for for Diva e as well so that's why it's a vampire attack right and they're using token incentives to do that now I have said before in the past that as I said it's not live yet this protocol is very new I wouldn't trust most of your Ethan here to be honest and I would be very aware of the risks you are but if you are up for taking some risk if you are up if you do hold St right now maybe you want to uh kind of be part of this vampire attack and you want to earn some some token rewards

that may or may not be worth something like we we have no idea right you can you can do napkin math about what it's worth um and I'm not going to do the math on on the call but you can take the total Supply you can uh give it a market cap and then you can work out the dollar amount of each token and then you can look at the uh uh when they I don't know if they published it yet but you can actually look at how much Diva you're getting um uh uh per day or something like that and then you can work out what the dollar amount is there and if it's worth the the risk reward for you but I definitely highly recommend going and giving David's blog post a read because it's got all the details but there's also a thread as well that you can read

for a tldr I'll link them both in the YouTube description below for you to do so all right L2 beat has introduced something called the b r or build your own rollup so they say here we're beond we're Beyond thrilled to unveil our new tool a gateway to Sovereign rollups stripped down to the core for a better understanding of the rollup Magic so what is this they say this project is a simplified version of a sovereign rollup in contrast to optimistic and ZK rollups it it only relies on the L1 for data availability it is currently deployed on the H Sky test net and you can play around with it on the web app which I've got in front of me right now at B.L tube.com uh and you can check it all out here I mean it's a pretty Bare Bones UI but it's there and then they continue by

saying the cbase uh is here on GitHub uh and then for more information on how it works there's a blog post here as well so I guess this is just continuing the trend of kind of the I guess roll up as a service uh thing that we've been seeing play out over the past few months uh especially there's a bunch of teams building this and it's not just like new teams it's existing teams like obviously polygon doing their um their ZK chain thing optimism doing their super chain thing the bunch of others have announced um different ways of doing it as well and this really is kind of I guess the the next big thing over the next few years I think it's like which project is going to win the most chains building on them basically right and what's that

going to look like in the end State like are we going to have hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands of these app chains that all kind of interconnect or are we going to have the the generalized chains where the bulk of the activity happens and I've gone through this before and about my opinions where I basically said that in terms of the generalized chains I feel like there's only going to be a handful of them that are that are super successful in terms of the app Chains It's hard to tell maybe maybe it's a pero distribution where most of the activity concentrates in a bunch of apps which I I think it's probably going to be that because if you look at the way just generally everything works in life um and when it comes to Tech if you look at the popularity of apps for example on the

App Store I mean there are only a handful of apps that have all the users and then I mean more probably more than a handful but then there's a a long taale right a lot like there's millions of apps but really how many apps do all of you use on a day today basis right I mean you could probably pick like a 100 apps worldwide that people use on a day-to-day basis out of the millions so it's probably going to look like that where we potentially have lots and lots of app chains but only uh you know maybe I don't know if it's going to be 100 or some other number like that where they heavily used and everyone uses them because at the end of the day there can only be so many uh app chains doing the same thing right and there can only be

so many up chains doing something different because if you look at the the the way the the um the mobile market works for example apps on on on the mobile market there are so many different chat apps right but what ends up happening is that there there so many different ones but a lot of them don't have have either kind of like Regional usage like for example in Australia WhatsApp isn't used very much at all but Facebook Messenger is used a lot right but in other countries WhatsApp is very popular so it's kind of a regional distribution there I don't know if that's going to happen with crypto I mean we do see a bit of it right now with obviously BC being popular in Asia and Trum being popular in South America but that's more based on the fees rather than the uh kind of product itself I

mean you could argue that the product itself is Lowel fees and stuff like that but these are all the open questions that you that you kind of have right where are there going to be these app chains that are more localized you know why are they going to have usage over one one of these other app chains are we going to have like 20 different app chains that do decentralized exchanges I I I don't know what that's going to look like especially because liquidity is a is a concern like liquidity is something that that has a strong Network effect so it kind of depends on how you can Source the liquidity where it sourced from who's sourcing it fees all that sorts of stuff so really I think we'll get an answer to this at some point it's probably not going to be for the next 5

to 10 years at least probably even longer than that but I do think we'll get an answer to that but anyway you can go check out L2 beats uh build your own rollup uh kind of um blog post here I'll link it in the YouTube description below for you to do so now of course farcaster went live I think a couple days ago so it's live for everyone it's permissionless I'm sure a lot of you have signed up for it now and Dan Romero announced it here on Twitter of course and then he had a couple of other tweets which I'll just load up here um he introduced something called Crypt less but onchain on boarding for farcast uh warcast allows anyone warcast is one of the clients of far castar it allows anyone with an iOS device to sign up for farcaster without a pre-existing

wallet or any crypto just a few taps with pass keys and inet purchases so all 1.4 billion iOS users can use this without any extra work so this is very cool it's integrated directly with the obviously face ID system on here as you can see in the screenshots so basically you create your account you get charged a dollar a month apparently um I think it was $5 a year for the for the first year or something like that but whatever it is I guess it's probably going to defend depend on local currencies and stuff like that as well um but but yeah you can see what it's like here you create the account and then you just use your face ID to sign in and there's no extra steps steps required here it's using the magic of p keys if you don't know what pass keys are they're

basically the same thing as like what we know as crypto wallets it's a private public key pair the private key is basic is kept on the secure Enclave on the iOS device or in Android's case on on the Android device but I don't think this is available to Android uh just yet um and then you can just uh use that to access your account which is obviously a huge step up from a uiux perspective and I would say this is probably the furthest along honestly in terms of an app that's actually getting actively used faster is is really alive I was browsing through the feed today um and I'm getting a lot of new followers on there so it's definitely alive right now and I have high hopes for it to be honest as an alternative to Twitter obviously as an alternative to other social media

networks out there and something that's that's definitely crypto native I definitely have high hopes for it but yeah you can go check that out if you haven't yet and you can see here Dan Romero also put out a tweet with a screenshot of ether scan showing people paying onchain to sign up for farcast so yeah people paying with eth to sign up for farcaster that's awesome like how awesome is that and this is being done at L2 I believe on on on op mainnet this is the dream guys like I I I've talked about this for so long long now and it feels like it's it's been decades but it really hasn't it probably has been the last couple years where I've been going on about this thing when it comes to the dream of every something being like a totally crypto native app being able to

pay in crypto and being on an L2 farcaster is one of the most far along apps here and it's a non-speculative app that's the most important thing this is not something that is speculative yes sure there might be some people trying to airdrop Farm I don't even know if far is going to have a token but sure people are going to try and airdrop Farm but but the the the point is is that farcast start is not inherently a speculative app it is a social media platform you go on there you send your F your your casts out you browse the feed you follow people you do everything that you do on Twitter but in a in a Crypton native uh experience right and you also get the optionality of using different interfaces likely you used to get when using Twitter but Twitter shut that down

and then uh because everything's natively crypto it's very easy just to pay in crypto as you can see here in the screenshot it's very easy just to pay for your sub description in crypto uh to to farter here so this is really the dream guys every app's going to look like this eventually speculative or not it's just going to be very very easy to sign up everything's going to be done natively on chain it's going to be on L2 so fees are going to be negligible or zero to be honest I've discussed before how I think the end state of fees is basically zero because the L2 will just cover the fees for the users or it will just be baked in to different actions that the user takes um but yeah just I don't know I I I don't know if you can hear it on my voice this stuff excites

me more than anything because you can finally see it going from inside of crypto kind of stuff to like wow we can actually scale this to people that aren't in crypto people outside of the crypto Eco system are going to get value out of this and it's not just going to be for speculative reasons they're not just coming in because they want to gamble on some coin they're coming in because we're providing them an application that is better than the existing um one that they that they've been using or that they're used to and as I said it is crypto native there so yeah anyway if you haven't signed up for farcaster yet you can all you have to do is go to the website go to warcast that's the client that I use probably the best client right now out of all of them um and then you can sign up on

there and and as I said doing it from an iOS device means you can just sign in with face ID no uh uh no need to do anything else there all right so I did promise you guys a bullish rant at the end of the episode and here we are so there's a tweet here that I put out just a couple of hours ago where I said the final stage of the bull market makes you feel like you're going to make infinite money the final stage of the be/ crab market makes you feel like you're never going to make money again hold on Friends the light of the bull market will shine upon us soon enough now you guys know my general view on the market and has remained the same pretty much all year where I basically said 2023 is a crab market Year we're not going to do

anything um you know anything amazing price-wise we're going to be stuck between that $1,000 and $2,000 range for the whole year and I mean it's October we've only got a what 2 and a half months left of the year and we have been stuck more or less in that 1 to 2,000 range with a little bit of a Spike above it um or I think a two spikes above it during the year but to like 2100 or something so it doesn't it doesn't really count right so we've basically been in that range all year now I've also said that I believe next year we're going to finally break out of that range and we're going to basically break out of I think for BTC it's 32k the top of the range and for E for eth it's like 2.2k uh and I said that once we break

out of that range and hold it then the bull market basically starts at that point um and I've given reasons before as to why I think it's going to happen next year obviously the ATF stuff New Year bullishness um just following the fouryear cycle ETFs of course all that all that sorts of stuff there but the reason I put this tweet out was because it's kind of funny how the markets just Bull and Bear markets they work this exact same way just opposite and what I mean by this is exactly what I said in my tweet like if you're if you remember I don't know how many of how many of you remember this I remember this of course cuz I'm explaining it but I don't know how many of you remember this but if you go back to like I don't know the end of

2021 maybe like October November where everything was going nuts all the nfts were going up all the other layer ones were going up Ethan BTC were hitting a new all-time high and it felt like the super cycle was actually a thing at that point in time I'm sure many of you felt that you were going to keep making money forever right maybe you had a little bit of doubt about that and you were like H okay uh this is too good to be true but but I'm sure a lot of you and I know for a certain most of the market bought into the fact that they thought that it was just going to be up only they were just going to make infinite money the the the gains train was never going to stop and of course that wasn't the case right within a year from that feeling

everything was in the like everything had gone down so much everything had blown up Terror blew up FTX blew up Celsius blew up like all of these things blew up and everything went down except btsc and eth by 90 plus% right and just to give you a refresher of how bad it was at the time eth went from $4,900 in November to $880 in June that was 6 months in 6 months eth tanked by like almost 90% or something like that 85 or 90% something crazy like that right um and there and and before it bottomed at 880 it was 12 straight weeks of down action the three months of just readed down action on eth um during that and then obviously we we we we kept going and then into 2023 it's just been

even more depressing I guess in terms of price action and that's where we get to the second part of my tweet where I said the final stage of the bear and crab market is the exact opposite feeling to what you were feeling at the top of the market where now everyone's like am I ever going to make money from this industry again stocks are pumping I could be earning 5% on my cash in a bank account uh you know uh but my crypto is just doing nothing every pump gets sold down uh you know eth is barely above its all-time high from 2018 if you if you adjust it for inflation it's below that right so you you have all of this extremely bearish energy which as I said is the exact opposite of what people felt at the top now I'm not going to say that this

signal is like 100% going to work every time but this signal for me is a really good signal because if you get to the point where everyone just like is in disbelief they just basically like well and you know I feel like I'm never going to make money again I don't know what the bull market felt like this Market's a scammed blah blah blah you basically re reach the stage where it's like you you and I think I've said this before on the refuel um where it's like you you you hit rock bottom literally and the only way up is up I know it sounds silly to say but but really you eventually hit a point where you can't actually go lower like the meme of it can't get worse is actually true at that point and I've explained before about how this plays out in something called time based

capitulation where it takes a long time to repair the damage long time in crypto uh time because 2 years in crypto feels like 20 years right but it takes quite a long time for that to happen now of course you guys know that my bet is that we're going to break out of the crab range and start a new bull market next year timing as I said is a bit funny I have said that I think that we could get to alltime highs again the second half of next year um and I'm I still remain that as my opinion here nothing has changed for me the fouryear cycle seems to be playing out uh very similarly still but I have warned before that the next three months and this was back in September I think that it would be probably the most brutal because you're

getting to the stage now where it's the end stage of the time based capitulation everyone's depressed everyone's like I'm never going to make money again everything is just bleeding out like not maybe not Ethan BTC as much but if you look at the other coins guys they're bleeding out hard like really hard and to me that signals that we're basically almost there and I could be completely wrong on this I'm not saying to go out there and bet on on me being right with 100 times leverage or anything like that but if you are a long-term investor and you are someone who wants to play the fouryear Cycles this is how you do it like that's what I try to do I mean I suck at short-term investing because I'm just bullish biased to much towards this ecosystem especially eth there is absolutely no way that I could ever

successfully do short even medium-term uh Investments or trades I that's just not my jam long term though I think at this point after being in this ecosystem for so long I have a pretty decent read of of things and and people will obviously come up with the bare case still they'll be like well you know rates are high inflation is still relatively High there's Wars going on uh you know the macro still looks bad recession this recession that and honestly I could understand understand that but that is still not enough to convince me that it's going to be a bearish year next year because in my mind there are as many bull bull catalysts as there are kind of bare catalysts and I feel like at this point the bare catalysts have already been priced in to an extent where it's like

we've been hearing about this for how long now like at least 12 months right the world's going to end the macros recession here blah blah blah and in those 12 months in those 12 months inflation's come down the entire time pretty much right at least in the US I'm talking pretty us-centric now we had black Rock's file for an ETF right A recession hasn't happened I don't know if it's going to happen or not maybe it doesn't maybe it does obviously the macroeconomy if you are someone who now analyzes that stuff can look bad like the US debt ballooning and stuff like that but it's all about like does that actually matter in the context of crypto my bet is that no it doesn't matter my bet is also that the rate Rises are pretty much done and I feel like we're going to see rate Cuts

next year along with more quantitive easing but I don't pay attention to that with my crypto kind of investment thesis all I pay attention to is what I kind of like feel like is a crypto I guess Centric thing fouryear cycle obviously some outside things like the ETFs but sentiment generally as well various signals that I that I tend to use here and that's why I say that I play the fouryear cycle I play those long very long-term Cycles because for me it's much easier because it's just how I think about things and it allows me to keep being bullish biased without wrecking myself trying to play short to medium-term uh Trends there so yeah hopefully that made you guys a bit bullish even if you're feeling like really down or feeling really depressed about this I know there's a lot of you

feeling this right now the ecosystem seems quiet because of this even though there's plenty of stuff still going on in ethereum but uh I don't know I I still get the same feeling I did in 2019 where we're really just like almost there we're on the cusp I see the light of the bull market at the end of the tunnel the train I'm on is going really really slow but it's going to get there eventually and things can change really fast as I've explained before eth at the beginning of 2020 was was $130 by the end of 2020 it was like what 8 $900 things can change extremely quickly guys don't be caught offside I guess is the the only not investment advice I can give uh because getting caught offside and then not being able to experience the bull market because you were just

like super bearish at the bottom is worse than um losing money because you're not gaining money but you're not losing money either so you're not feeling anything you're just like oh my God like what's going on and then you're chasing things and you know your emotions go everywhere so it becomes a bit crazy there but anyway on that note that's going to be it for today so thank you everyone for listening and watching be sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet give it a thumbs up subscribe to newsletter join the Discord Channel and I'll catch you all next week thanks everyone