All-In Summit, Inevitable Superintelligence, and Crypto's Role | Hivemind

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and I just think most people still aren't ready for the fact that we probably get AGI within the decade if you got had enough of a supply side using this thing you'd literally have an API key to the entire internet right just being scraped for you at all times and fed into a muddle there does hit a point like the wealth inequality Gap can only get so wide before you have just civil unrest right I think you just need to be willing to be like wrong and be I think if you like being willing to be wrong in public is such a powerful trait to have like most people just cannot fathom being wrong in public nothing said on the hive mind is a recommendation to buy or sell Securities

or tokens this podcast is strictly for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our own opinions not Financial advice [Music] hi everyone and welcome to another episode of the high of Mind podcast the goal of the podcast is to provide an inside look into what we like to call the deli hive mind bringing together some of our brightest Minds from each of the divisions to share insights Alpha and [ __ ] posts today with us we have the regular crew cedus Duncan and yan yan has just returned from the all-in summit so we're very curious to

to hear about how that was I've only watched like the Elon talk which I thought was pretty dope but yeah I'd love to hear about what it was like Peter Theo and and all that yeah no it's a really strong collection of speakers I'd say it's the the best collection of of speakers in a conference I've ever been to just because of kind of like the pedigree so yeah you had Elon JD Vance Sergey Bren Peter teal Travis kalanick Megan Kelly uh Mark Benny off and then then you know you see that from the founders side and you also had uh like a senator from um Arizona Kristen Kirsten Cinema who's kind of a Democrat who went

independent um you had two kind of foremost experts on on geopolitics uh John mimer and Jeff Sachs who were professors uh wrote a bunch of stuff and one was kind of the adviser to um to yelton and and someone else and um I forget who else uh but no the really interesting perspective on kind of geopolitics um you had uh you know the leading Founders in in the VL space just like vertical takeoff and Landing so you know uh in terms of uh flight uh basically um planes that have propellers attached to them so they're kind of you know helicopters but they they have they're winged helicopters so that you

can get kind of the the benefits of of vertical takeoff and Landing but but much better travel speed and Energy Efficiency and did you get to like sit with the like I know there's the dinners and the parties and stuff did you like dress up for all the parties and then did you get to like hang out with did you get to hang out with like uh all these the speakers at different points no so so I I think there were some areas they did really well and then some other areas um they they left their there's room for improvement so um the last year they basically did a high inexpensive tier and a cheap tier but the distinction was pretty um underwhelming from what I gathered chatting with

people this time they just did one expensive tier I think they might have invited slightly too many people um it wasn't it wasn't stuffed by any means but I think you know for the price tag you kind of assumed a certain level of intimacy and you didn't necessarily get that I think you know they themselves were around but not really too much um and so that just led to them getting completely mobbed when they were around which made it kind of difficult to have uh some organic convos orse I think if they were more available people that were going to mob would get their fix and then everyone else can kind of chat with them more casually um but uh and then the event itself was cool it happened to be during

this blistering heat wve in La so that kind of added an interesting dimenstion but wasn't too big of a deal was it was half indoors half Outdoors uh over the course of three days um but yeah no that this the speakers really really interesting what was your favorite talk out of curiosity or like your your favorite speaker yeah so I guess it depends on on what topics so I think one of the the cooler ones from a builder side was this guy uh Jake lucerin uh basically gecko robotics was combining so like AI was naturally a big theme but there was also a a a big kind of Robotics tilt as well and so what basically building is a way for you to

use drones and robots to track wear and tear on uh major infrastructure all around the world so from Bridges to power plants to all this stuff right now it's done very manually in a in a very analog way and there's no way to good way to kind of Monitor and actually track this stuff and so there's a lot like the the amount of money that gets spent on maintenance um for for example the military is like 400 billion a year that's just pure maintenance and then the there's you know Pockets everywhere so I thought that was a really cool uh zero to1 project that that um was was great to see and they brought a lot of these robots in and they were showing them which was awesome yeah there's a lot of people working on like military

attack and autonomous drones like I've SE I've seen a few crypto Founders actually pivot to that like a few really smart crypto Founders that I spoke to recently I won't name names in case people think they're still working on the pro the project they're supposed to be working on but uh yeah they're they're kind of pivoting to that yeah it's pretty cool yeah no the the the it made a lot of sense and and I think that the cost savings and and and prevention because also for Bridges it's you know collapsing so there's a lot of lives to be saved and and and a lot of safety improvements on that front um because right now it's it's they they he showed us how they're basically tracked now and it's kind of a guy hanging off a cable basically tapping this metal and listening to different sounds and and

trying to identify uh you know issues with the Integrity that way um I thought Peter teal was was really good uh Megan Kelly was was really funny um uh Mark benof was was really funny um but yeah Broadley it was it was great conference um and yeah I mean it was good to to see the besties as well um but no um yeah really enjoyed it it was I think it was a nice change of B to go to a non- crypto conference I don't remember the last time I've done that so that was always fun crypto came up a couple times um more so from speakers uh I think you

know JD Vance actually brought it up a couple times um I'm trying to remember who else brought it up but it it it you know it came up but it wasn't really a primary topic um it seemed yeah how was it being the crypto guy at these at these like uh dinner tables and stuff uh it was fine I wasn't really super loud about it uh I kind of wanted to more so just be a sponge rather than be the focal point so um it it certainly came up but I think you know it takes a certain amount of existing interest in crypto for the conversation to be lengthy versus kind of just like oh what do you do and then you talk about it and

and and then there's you know some interest but there weren't really you know these like hourlong convos on on crypto and what's happening um I think it's just kind of a function of yeah the interest in the space from people outside it right now was there a lot of talk on the election OB like JD Vance there and then isn't Megan C's like pretty pretty conservative right or yeah no there was definitely talk uh about the election just you know it varied some people were were were looking to chat about more others less um so it was definitely a topic and then the uh John Mir schimer and Jeff saaks cono uh the two professors was somewhat about the election but it was it was really cool I

was just talking about um they they had they they've known each other for a while and and they're both like you know preeminent or prominent um Minds in that in that space and they had varying views just basically how can the US coexist with uh China being a world superpower and and and kind of what is the trajectory for you know uh how how the US foreign policy kind of operates and and what the the motivations are and and what the implications are for um uh kind of other players in the space can yeah can you have two Global Powers coexist or does the US always need to maintain itself as the like you know the foremost uh superpower and thus creating conflicts

to to kind of ensure that that stays as is and basically that just kind of deciphering the the motivations of of US foreign policy nice um yeah I studied M arm uni he's like a realist guy just thinks everyone's out for themselves basically yeah should be fun did was there a lot of people chatting about AI I actually was was trying to I know Elon had some some cool stuff on AI yeah so they they they they kind of talked about you know aside from the uh Sergey Brin was talking about AI for a while that was most of his talk um yeah I saw that he's like back in the office

now and stuff it's it's pretty cool like it sounds like he was sort of just retired kite surfing for for like 10 years I guess it's pretty tiring just like you know like raping people for ads and printing money you can just get tired of that after a while but it sounds like ai's like rekindled his his kind of flame like um yeah pretty cool cuz obviously they were they launched the Transformers paper like I did a P with with Ilia yesterday um he was saying that they basically had like pretty much chat Bots running internally like pretty early on and just never productized it because it just didn't seem like a big enough Revenue opportunity for them and it also sort of

cannibalized the core search business which which makes sense but yeah I wanted to chat a little bit about AI on this because I don't know I think it's like the most important thing happening in investment and in the world like in in Marcus and in the world and we haven't really talked about it on the Pud so I mean maybe I can I can set it up and then I'd love to get you guys' thoughts on it so for for me I think um been been it's as excited I've been about a tech Trend since kind of the Bitcoin white paper been been going down the rabbit hole and really my like my my red pill moment rad pill black pill I almost forget what color pill is the one

that that gets you down the rabbit hole uh well R red pill black pill is like red pill yeah black pill it was blue pill it was red and blue pill it's red and blue and then white and black are like different uh we won't get okay well red pill I got red pilled by the ash Bruner um situational awareness paper like and then I yeah that that's kind of what really tilts me over the edge and I just think most people still still aren't ready for the fact that we probably get AGI within the decade um like just based on the relationship between effective compute and the capabilities of AI and how much

money is being plowed into compute like there's people talking about you know zqu did that paper on the revenue hole and stuff but I don't think that um even if there is a revenue hole I don't think people are going to stop spending just because all the big tech companies see it as existential to their businesses which it probably is so they're going to keep PL buy money into this you know nvidia's on track like Nvidia revenue is probably like the best proxy for AI spending they're on track for like over 100 billion this year which is more than 2x last year um there's like 83 billion invested in AI startups since the beginning of 2023 um and so I I just think like spending on computes going to increase spending on Talent is going to increase

um and you end up like I think the current AI sort of already pretty close to an artificial en intelligence like we just had sort of pass the touring test and no one no one really cares like you know um and once you add agenta capabilities to it like ability to use the internet to make payments to join chats to join group calls to get larger context windows on your company and stuff I just think it like kind of changes everything um and then there's obviously like super Intelligence on top and the more AI researchers I talk to like they're all pretty bullish on super intelligence like which is the idea that once you get AGI it can automate the job of an AI researcher so you end up with self-improving AIS um like AIS improving

AIS and you go from basically what there's like maybe 1,500 researchers at the top Labs right now you could go to like 100 million researchers that are like superpowered working 24 hours a day with you know um with like uh the ability to run experiments like keep millions of lines of code in their head as context and stuff like this and then that's when stuff could get pretty crazy and yeah most of the AI researchers I talk to say that AI is is already super useful for research and there was that paper that came out yesterday that kind of corroborated this and so then you have that and then you stack like robots on top like humanoid robots you know which that there's like Tesla's working

on and figure and a bunch of others and I feel like you get to a world where the the cost of Labor just collapses to like ASM tootes to to just near zero right the cost of inference basically like the cost of cognitive labor goes to like the cost of inference which is just like power and and the cost of physical labor will just like ASM toote to raw materials to to the cost of raw materials just on that point I think like in Ping's report I think he was saying it's like 50,000x of like a human brain the amount of energy that you can like AI Minds you can kind of run the type of energy that powers one human brain today so just like yeah anyways go on wait what 50,000 say that again the amount of like

kilowatt whatever whatever energy me measurement he was using to power one human brain you can power like 50,000 AI agents in you know some years from now and so think about that these things don't get tired they don't need coffee they don't need food they don't sleep right it's like yeah and it's kind of like it's weird what happens to the world it's in some ways sort of like Marx's nightmare like I feel like labor just gets destroyed like there kind of is no labor and obviously that's what people say about every technological Revolution but I do think this time is is different like you you basically have to compete with uh Ani that with the cost of inference right like you know

whatever job you're doing accounting legal whatever that's like your new competitor I I see the impact as like roughly the same as you you you take like B of Highly skilled 24-hour a day working immigrants into a random country right like what happens to that to that country it's like you you'd see it's very bullish for Capital right like I think costs go way down it's like highly deflationary I think the cost of everything will just go way down um but I feel like labor there is this weird transition where labor just gets like if you don't own capital and you're just selling your time for for money you kind of just get screwed and I don't know what what do you guys think like what

I'm sure you guys thought about this I agree with that I think that's also why there's such a rush to invest in AI stuff because everyone is scared that like you need capital is like will be theend defense I think um you know then you get into these other topics like Ubi um there is it seems like AI is just going to keep making the wealth inequality Gap even worse um and so there does hit a point like the wealth inequality Gap can only get so wide before you have just civil unrest right and so I think like a lot of these policies that governments and

like politicians are introducing these days you're going to see them more and more and like if one country has a wealth tax sure you can just move but if every country has a wealth tax you don't really have that ARB anymore um so I don't know like I really it is uh I don't know like what are people going to be doing well there's there's no world where every country has a well taex because the as more countries have it it becomes really attractive to not have it because all the rich and talented people will come to you so there is Game Theory there to to I I've also been thinking about like what jobs what jobs remain and I I basically think

like there's one class of jobs which always remain which are the ones where you value just like humanness over efficiency right like no matter how efficient and cheap an AI is you still want a human like you still might want an artisan piece like a a desk made by a human or an art piece made by a human like for social workers and psychologists you'll you'll probably still want to speak to an actual human and not an AI Sports and stuff you're still going to want to watch humans play them rather than rather than [ __ ] robots and in AI although there a Jiu-Jitsu robot now which I'm pretty scary to fight to be honest um and then the second class is just I think like coordinators like what what AIS don't have is is like my friend puts it like taste like they can't make

like subjective decisions because they they like fundamentally aren't subjects right they're they're not like there's some decisions that are made for humans behalf like I think Capital allocation is is one of these where like should should Zuck invest in or should Facebook or meta invest in like AI or or VR like how can an AI make that decision we're just not going to like trust it with it right like it might produce a report that helps in in assessing it but it's not going to make the decision itself I think like Capital allocation and then just like coordinates a roles that are gonna you know keep the goals in mind like to to and then coordinate a bunch of AIS to get some some job done I think that job also remains um like people who would just really the good at leveraging

and coordinating AIS but everything else like all the actual specific technical jobs you know are kind of I think I think um yeah definitely like creative type jobs leadership type jobs decision-making type jobs probably okay um but yeah so basically AI right now I forget if it was one of rinko's reports or one of pondering reports but it's not good at like arithmetic and it's not good at reasoning but it's good at everything else right [Music] um and so the arithmetic one seems like solvable but I'm not an expert on that

yeah it's already pretty good at arithm I think that's no no it gets no no no it's it's bad at it because it's like not good at doing math um it's like one of the I think the the the latest clo is pretty good are are you sure that applies to like the models I thought that was like like I feel like that's solvable if you like give them a calculator versus the llm trying to do the no because the way llms work is like it'll it'll just uses a bunch of like basically searches and then just kind of like starts randomizing different words in front based on like frequency of how these like words kind of fit together through all the data sets they have and doing math is a bit different than than

that it's not like constructing sentences so how quickly do you Jose do you think that jobs will start to be replaced like because right now I feel like when was it December of last year so almost a year ago we kind of got like the chat GPT like holy [ __ ] this is real moment right and then from there like so it's been close to a year how long do you think it takes for more I think we're already seeing a bunch of examples of it like um the customer service company I forget the name now they just like laid off or like was it Clara laid off their entire like customer service team just automated it with AI like that's a pretty clear one

um there's been like there's a that tweet the other day about the company that replaced all it SAS services with AI um I think you're kind of seeing it in in big Tech where they had like pretty big layoffs but like the return invested Capital has stayed pretty much the same or or improved and I think that's just going to keep keep happening I think we could have like just structurally higher unemployment going forward you know just basically deflation going going forward but obviously I'm aware that people said this about every single other uh Tech Revolution you know and somehow like we all want find things for humans to do it just yeah it does seem different to me well so the question right it's because yeah you have the Industrial Revolution

people no longer working in factories or doing something else and uh is it something where the next generation was going to be well equipped for new jobs or will the immediately replaced population be able to you know find a value ad place for themselves in society where they can generate a wage yeah I feel like it's like a velocity thing like how quickly it changes that's like where the deflationary [ __ ] gets scary it's like so chat chat GPD came out I just looked at it's not a year ago two years ago so let's say this like really ramps up in the next three four years then like a

bunch of people lose their job then there's massive deflation deficits like get even worse and then kind of that's where like the economy could really get screwed but I feel like over time people will find new jobs and it'll just be different things and more like creative or human like things but I think people naturally that creative I think there are some people that are very creative but I don't think this this notion that people who are laid off are now just GNA be able to go do creative things like that I I just don't see that yeah well what's AI bad at or won't be able to do because I mean if you think about who gets laid off it's going to be it's a combination of those who are are underperforming and

those who aren't really capable of enhancing their performance with AI right because that that's kind of going to be who who who's a 10x employee it changes from what you can do directly versus how good you are at leveraging these tools to make yourself more productive and so you know like so those that get laid off like I don't know I'm I don't I'm not as optimistic on them being able to go do something there's just a lot of people there's just a lot of humans that's that's that's the worry right Ubi but like Ubi and they're not going to go do creative things I think they're just going to go play video games or like I I think you need to try and try and like res skill people though

like have some Ubi where they have to go and like learn how to use AI learn because it's just GNA be a tough Century for for for a lot of people if you're not gonna like learn to use AI but even then like you don't need I don't know I think the main thing AI can't do is is make is is have judgment like we won't trust it to make important judgments for the foreseeable future like judgment taste intuition whatever you want to call it everything from product to investment to these things like AI are going to be inputs they're going to be part of the process but there's going to be a human like coordinating them and making the the final call I think on most things but those humans are like that's the top like Echelon of each job that you want that has the high judgment

right and then there's a bunch of like just just sort of um like AIS under them that can replace most of the hard work that's being done and those people I yeah I'm I struggle to see what what how you find did you see Sam's that that the results of that study that came out on Ubi too where yeah uh just not bull kind of what you'd expect you know basically they they did this two-year analysis where they gave some people I forget the exact numbers but it was like ,000 extra the people that were earning between 30 and 40K they gave some of them $1,000 post tax a month and then others like 50 bucks or something uh and and those that got the Thousand ended up having much

lower salaries after a couple more years than than those that that had the 50 and then you know you kind of their happiness reverted to Baseline after you then reverted as a Baseline and their economics were kind of what you'd expect where initially there was some additional money in their bank account but then it all kind of went towards you know discretionary spend and and and they were no better off but yeah leg they mentioned unhappier but but I think the biggest takeway was the the motivation was killed right like the those that got less money ended up uh working harder in in their jobs and and had a higher salary than those that got the initial bump up front where was that study from or when yeah it's a if you Google it it'll

it'll come up it was like the biggest Ubi study cool yeah I wonder if we want to move to like H how how you're thinking about investing how people think about investing in AI because yeah the way the way I'm thinking about it is like there's sort of like two possible worlds in my mind in one of them um open source AI keeps up with Clos source and like we have models that are within at least like a generation like open source models are at least within one generation of like the best close Source models and then we have a world where that doesn't happen and close Source models just race ahead and you have these like vertically integrated big tech companies that literally just own

the entire stack and have like a level of like a level of domination over just just because because everyone's going to be using these things right I think you know what I think a Counterpoint to like that is just the natural incentive that crypto is so good at that if you're like a cracked founder you can actually like launch some project with a token and um sure you can create something and then go sell to like metag Google make a bunch of money and then chill but you actually still have more up side I think if you create like some protocol that ends up doing well I think like that's the one thing is that the incentives are still there in crypto if if you don't

have if you don't have open source models like if if the close Source models are just so much better it's just hard to create a compelling product like because you don't have the like no one's going to have the money to train these models like the next generation of models are going to cost like 50 bill you know like that's what I think Zuckerberg said that he's investing in in the next generation of llama and and that's going to keep going up like people are projecting this hits like one trillion right by 2030 whatever the people are going to be spending on compute and you're gonna have to build data centers next to power plants you know like with the advanced cooling systems like it's going to be incredibly centralizing Force um unless of course the unlikely hero Zuckerberg continues to open source llama I think that's like

a very different world but yeah if not I just feel like yeah big Tech because they're all either themselves or through Partnerships vertically integrated right other than the chip layer but all of them are working on chips like Google has their TPU Amazon has tranium Microsoft has their own thing and then you know chips they own the data centers with their Cloud businesses they own the model layer either through like part of owning part of open AI or Amazon owns part of clo or Google has their own with Gemini and then they own like um the application layer and then all of them have retary data as well to train this stuff on so how are you investing in it or thinking about like what layer to invest

in yeah I mean I I bought um i' been buying some big Tech just for the dystopian world I can be one of the capitalists that at least benefits from from the dystopia although I do think the government kind of steps in in that world and like breaks these things up like just don't see how but these like entities become like more power power fold in government I feel like in those World they already are starting to become like with like lobbying and influence like so maybe they get broken up but it's going to be weird because they're going to become like more powerful than the government itself especially like these Global

corporations especially with super intelligence like with super intelligence it's just hard to even predict what happens like yeah that's like a sort of black hole for me well the energy one interesting like cuz it's going to use like such an insane amount of energy right so like investing around that I there's like Amazon bought like some nuclear plant to like power one of their data centers I think like nuclear could make it comeback maybe if if like you need like an insane amount of energy as they're saying yeah yeah yeah I just don't know how to how to think about investing in energy yeah I did Big Tech and then I do think like in the open source World which I

think is right now the base case because because fa zuck's made a pretty big public commitment to open source um there's a lot of startup opportunities and I think you actually end up with like millions of models because like people it's like with anything else there's a cost performance trade-off right like the AGI the big AGI models will be the best for everything but for most use cases you just want a Slither of that right whether it's image recognition or booking flights or writing essays or whatever there's going to be specialized models for those that are much smaller and much cheaper and you're going to want to pay for the maximum you're going to want to like get the cheapest like for a given performance the cheapest that you can get it right and so that's like I think in millions

of models world with like aggregation layers and like some verticalized models and stuff like that and I think there's a lot of startup opportunities there and also crypto AI opportunities too um so I think that's interesting I mean you could definitely go like energy and commodities and stuff like that I just don't know how to invest in that stuff really what have you guys been doing or have you not I don't have any um do I let me think no I don't have any AI crypto bags um because it's just hard for me to like R actually that's not true I have I have some stuff private stuff but like liquid um personally um directly it's just like hard for me to

wrap my head around the valuations um I don't know yeah it seems like the easiest or the safest beted has been Nvidia for sure and and will kind of continue to be so yeah it's just like Hardware is so tough to build a mo around especially when everyone else is looking at your margin as their opportunity right you can literally cut costs by 50% by using your own chips right like just the video's margin um seems like some of these some of these other companies are going to get this this stuff to work but I agree that's been the that's been the play so far I did see people were trying to get cute like half a year to a year

ago about picking Intel over Nvidia and then Intel just totally [ __ ] the B and nid it's like still top dog so yeah like for me it's an area I own Nvidia through the index funds I don't like I don't have um yeah uh I don't have direct AI stuff I'm like personally buy yeah I feel like the nuclear energy in like uranium yeah yeah cam Co just seems like a lot of hedge like hedging your bets to a lot of the stuff like you know Green energy like this is how if you want just

like more abundant energy that's like things are going to scale and you've kind of had this like artificial like suppression of nuclear energy being adopted um because of like I don't know maybe the governments just don't want like anyone to be able to make a nuke because I think it's like pretty easy to like reverse engineer the like reactor Tech into a nuclear bomb so I think that has been a re like that could have been a reason or people are just kind of scared of it but definitely nuclear energy seems like a good hedge the other investment opportunities I think are kind of of cool are the secondaries on like the XIs of this

world and like CH even even open AI like xai open AI perplexity because I mean perplexity I think is a pretty interesting one because they they're sort of like just building an answer engine on top of all the existing models so if you pay for pro you can literally choose whichever model you want to use you can add like your your your context there so like I'm a VC I want like science backed stuff whatever it is you you you is your context and it just gives you the best answer and then they have their own model that has like references and sources for everything which is super useful and I think something like that because I'm already using this like way more than Google right um like I don't know about how how I'm I'm curious like about you

guys how much you use like the the chat buts versus Google but I'm using them way more than Google and like that in it in itself is like what what's what's Google's search Revenue it's like over 200 billion a year right um yeah I've been bad to migrate to be totally honest U I still useen a lot I don't know why um I did get I did get AI to like plan me a s-day trip though which was kind of cool um that's pretty dope and so now I have like ideas of that um I just need to use it more I need to get in the habit of using it more because I know it'll make me a lot better at everything I do um for whatever reason it's hard to break like old habits as you get older I

guess um but yeah I still haven't totally worked it into the flow I use a decent amount for questions I don't like any any most stuff I Google I would just look this up aside like the the the r the random stuff that I know is very specific to a certain site I'll Google because I want to land on that site but when I'm asking a question I would just use the app I haven't used it for planning or or like these really extensive tasks though it's been more just a lot of Q&A I use it for everything and like if you just take the time of search which I think like this thing clearly goes after search it's like a yeah I think it's like a 200 billion a year Revenue

business for Google and so I don't know I just feel like these things um like I think xai raised at 24 billion or something like that which is basically betting on Elon and and AI um and then I think some of these other secondaries are pretty interesting just given the fact that yeah I don't know I think most people are bullish but they still kind of aren't bullish enough on AI he was saying was was actually saying that uh he thinks humanoids are going to be a bigger the the biggest opportunity in in the history of humanity more so than AI I feel he's kind of talking his book for sure yeah doesn't Tesla have the humanoid yeah but on but you put like AI

in that right and then it's like damn well he said he can get he thinks within three Cycles which he estimated at like six years three production Cycles he can get humanoid robots to cost less than a small car so like 20 grand for your personal humanoid robot slave SL friend like and what it'll like do the dishes for you all I'm saying is like you don't want to be an early adoption whatever you want Duncan that thing's definitely murdering you in you're sleep it's governed by The Three Laws I mean I think robots will be huge but it's just so much harder to ship Hardware like not just the figuring it out like the regulations like the edge cases whereas software just just happens

like AGI and super intelligence I feel like there's almost no regulatory or like just just hard real world blockers to getting it done like depends where you place them like humanoids that exist in factories and in the background will be much those already exist yeah I me not to the scale that they're describing um C things that are walking around down the street that that's that's far away it's like do all your menial tasks like clean up your head yeah yeah Elon put it really well in the talk as well he was like productivity is just average productivity per person times the population right so it could just go to like just like with with

human oids in AGI I feel like it can just go up forever yeah it's I feel like it just will become a resource constraint like energy or something at that point like that's where I think you start to get constrained right because you see all those graphs of the countries where it's like the whatever GDP or productivity or wealth is just directly correlated with energy and yeah more energy you have the more wealthy the country is or the economy is so that's where it kind of leads back to to energy being interesting and kind of like aerg an encompassing play of of everything right but you have to takea pretty long term view on that yeah there's a really good report by epok AI it's called like can AI scaling continue

through 2030 and they do like some pretty in-depth research on all the different constraints so energy uh chip production capacity data scarcity and like the latency wall and they basically conclude that energy is is the biggest blocker although it doesn't really it doesn't really block anything till 2030 but that's going to be like the biggest limiting factor which maybe does go to there being some interesting opportuni use an investment in in the on the energy side but I feel like it's already blocking stuff like it's already an insane amount of energy and like isn't it water is a big component of it as well I read that cooling yeah yeah that that's kind of

interesting goes back to the two most basic things in life water and water and energy become the scarce things but yeah like if you were to think like productivity just like 10 X's from here like the constraints would probably be on like the commodity physical level energy level like in the real world rather than you know something else yeah energy becomes the unit of account I guess the store value whatever I feel like that's that's good for Bitcoin yeah I mean crypto AI is interesting too I do think a lot of people think it's vaporware I don't think it's vaporware although there's definitely a lot of vaporware in it what do you think like that's like crypto again right it's most of crypto's

it's the open source nature of anybody be able to do anything you're naturally going to get a lot of crap yeah I don't think you're saying anything this is the thing it's always easy to and and this is coming from someone who yeah is called crypto AI Vapor a lot it's always easy to just like say that something thing new was Vapor because you're going to be right on like 90 plus perc of what you're saying right yeah so you're always going to have things go to go back to and be like see I was right but you're also just going to miss the real like breakthroughs right the you like foundational things so yeah I think you just need to be willing to be like wrong and be I think if you like being willing

to be wrong in public is such a powerful trait to have like most people just cannot fathom being wrong in public and saying something where they there's so many things I've said where I look back in two years I was like wow that was so dumb but like I think that that's the only way that you really are going to stay at like the Forefront of stuff you know yeah I agree yeah um the most interesting bits I think of crypto AI that if I had to pick is I mean I think censorship resistance just makes sense like if if artificial intelligence becomes the most important intelligence becomes like the most

important resource then there's going to be demand for intelligence that sits outside the system just as there's demand for like money that sits outside the system like but but that's very abstract right I think the the biggest kind of real thing that's interesting is this idea of crypto is the open permissionless API for AI agents you know like you don't have to kyc you don't have to have a credit card you don't need a birth certificate you don't need approval from any third party and AI can just like deploy code and transfer value without intervention from from any human right it lets these you can have these sci-fi use cases of like AI companies permissionless raising money and and deploying services and and stuff like this so I think that's pretty

cool um and then I think crypto is just really good at bootstrapping Supply sides for for networks and I think the data one in particular is kind of interesting like um so like oi models have been trained on the entire internet now and so they're moving to like multimodal data so like video data and you know all this kind of thing um and I do and obviously open AI is making deals with like New York Times and Reddit to have an API key so they have fresh data all the time and they can they can they can trade on that and I do think there's going to be interesting ways that crypto can coordinate networks to like give you proprietary data like Hive mapper I think is an interesting example right

they've mapped I think like a quarter of the world now like seems like having that live dash cam data all the time is going to be pretty valuable to to something um and the same way like there's a lot of people that have valuable data but they don't maybe they're not big enough to like coordinate a deal with with open AI or whoever seems like data marketplaces could could come into their own too here um but I do think like dat collection and like the data layer is one of the most interesting of the crypto stack like and and where where you could have most value like I think grass it's a portfolio company of ours is super cool just like uses your spare bandwidth to to scrape the internet right so instead

of these companies having to do their own scraping you could just if if you had had enough of a supply side using this thing you'd literally have an API key to the entire internet right just being scraped for you at all times and fed into a model um I think that's pretty pretty sick um yeah and then there's like the decentralized training and stuff but those are just harder just seems Seems far away some some of these other ones what like what are the C so other than grass what are the other current crypto projects that are doing interesting things that you think um I mean I think NYS is is one of the smartest teams in the space they're doing a bunch of stuff like across the

stack they had like a pretty competitive open source model called Hermes um and then they just came up with like this way to like minimize latency so you can do decentralized training like distributed training which yeah distributed training is kind of like the Holy Grail um but because I mean the benefit is that you could theoretically this has always been a theoretical benefit like tap into the lowest marginal cost of compute anywhere in the world right whether it's someone's MacBook or something like this and the the drawbacks are just that you know these big tech companies are spending like billions of dollars designing data centers to be like fully optimized and

and there's huge Laten latency issues to training and stuff so it just seems like it's not going to happen anytime soon to me but I'm not I'm definitely not an expert like it could be wrong and also like the people that have the people that have the money have no incentive to like make this happen really um yeah so that one's interesting uh I think sentient is pretty interesting I think there's a lot of cool stuff happening it's just like very early um yeah it's just super early you guys looked at anything in crypto AI I know been the most poish historically I've read these reports

ponderings reports which are amazing um and by the way by the way we're doing like a crypto AI month in uh starting like mid October these reports um the first one is like unlocked and free right now uh but we're going to do like a bunch of stuff around you know like infrastructure middleware application layer um so and like so definitely be on the lookout for that coming up but I've read all these reports three times each and uh they're just like packed with info but I still find it um like it just seems like Mo you really have to take a leap of faith

on the amount of like money I guess a lot these projects will end up making because evaluations are like very much priced in like a lot in the future um but I mean hey man when I do I have that chart thing that I do where I go see like how coins are performed like by each sector and stuff and the AI wantes continue to actually be like less shitty than everything else you know it's like they're not they're not terrible um which is saying a lot I think in this market environment yeah is there anything about crypto we want to we have't like I know looks like it looks like BTC is about to

go under 04 to be honest it's at 04024 is that at alltime low no but it's like it hasn't been under this since like April of 21 oh okay well alltime low for this CC oh yeah all time love for the cycle um I don't know God that thing you want to talk about on rollups the post you made on on rollups yeah it's kind of just starting to think like obviously yeah I've been like bullish Alana over the past year um and a part of that thesis was just like I thought they'd get a lot more like Financial activity a lot more like fundamental revenue and all this stuff but I actually I do start to wonder like in the long run um is that even

going to be the the right way to like value L1 tokens and I really don't know I think there's like a lot of good points on a lot of sides um but if you believe that and I don't know if I necessarily believe this but if you believe that like apps will be able to capture all like the priority fees and me that they cause on like a shared layer then in that case there's not actually a lot of like fee Revenue that ends up going to like the L1 token and then you kind of do need to Value these things as you know Reserve assets or money what whatever you call them and then in like you know the eth rollup road map where eth is used right this is the whole thing it's like e is used on

all these rollups and that makes it money um it is like plausible that that ends up working out right I think the hard I think the the hardest thing though is that you know everybody says like eth's money like podcaster say eth his money vitalic says e eth's money Drake says eth's money like it doesn't matter what any one person thinks if like eth's money or not right it's like is the world going to adopt eth's money and that's still very unclear to me um at this point and so yeah I don't know I think the the argument that like all apps will be able to capture all their me in the long run is not necessarily true I think there's like a lot of positive

like synergies if you're an application and you launch on a shared State um where like if you now trying to try to capture that like like what me well for instance Unis swap if Unis swap goes and makes a chain all the yeah unap pump pump people are saying that pump could be is a good example of something that could be an app chain I do not agree with that at all like it pump benefits because it has access to all these users and liquidity like right there and so if pump is like oh we want to now start capturing our own M we're going to do an app chain or we're going to do app specific sequencing I don't know if like that's as easy as people make it out to be and they can do that with actually maintaining the same level

of adoption well the tradeoff is you ux right like if if people just had to use Phantom and it was really easy to to move their assets to this new pump chain like people don't really give a [ __ ] that they're interacting with with salana I don't think that that's always been why I'm bullish like raps and and app chains much to my detriment so far um yeah I just think that the and that's like the E thesis right once you get really down to it l1's have no value other than this this like proof verification and money right and then if that's the case then you have to accept rollups and and like build towards that the whole thing of of people not caring

but it's only until they hit some level of of escape velocity of liquidity in users right where it's like okay there's enough users for this app to operate in the same way it would have on the L1 and so then in that sense sure people don't care but you kind of have a cold star problem yeah I mean Pump uses soul in all its pools right right so like how the [ __ ] are you going to do that like an app chain we just use just use bridged so right like ony liquid they don't no one gives no one gives a [ __ ] everyone's on hyper liquid it's like close source code it's there's run by the team there's there's there's you know people who want to trade on

Leverage and are in jurisdictions where they can't easily do that there's a big reason for them to to to move over here it's a lot of these native assets that are purely interesting because there's enough other people who are going to speculate on this long tale of of of trash whereas like if you just want to trade on Leverage then then you know you'll have a few market makers that can make the experience great and then it doesn't really matter hyper liquid is really crushing it though they are so do you think yeah yeah I know but it's just like pretty crazy I feel like that could be a good yeah well I'm just looking at

this volume chart oh God I can't you think this is going to stay after TG this is what I was trying to say yeah because they had a month here I'll show I'll send I need to pull up a chart but basically they paused their point season for for May and like volume barely dropped um so like if you go look at hyper liquid throughout may like season one points ended they had like a month of no points and then Season Two started and their volume like dropped a bit but like it was still pretty significant I think they've kind of reached a and they've moved a lot of Distributing points point from like per uh trading to their spot trading they've just kind of reached escape

velocity I feel like on the per side of things where they have like a few hundred million in oi of BDC few hundred million in oi of e so like anyone who wants to get a position on like any single entity unless like you're some massive trading firm like you can reasonably get a position on it's like exactly like essential Exchange in terms of like feel and speed and features um the fees are like only three and a half bips for for makers um or sorry for takers um and yeah and they have like a pretty good selection of of long centralized

Exchange in its trust assumptions too though like at least right now no like as far I think that you can still can withdraw to the L1 but or to arbit trummer or the L1 but yeah I think that they're they're trying to make it um like its own app chain right like paralyzed dbm L1 and they've already had like if they can do that and migrate all this liquidity over yeah that would be pretty impressive the nodes are closed Source run like mt had that had a good post today about hyper liquid um kind of repeating things everyone knows

but it's just like way easier to to go from like that to like decentralize and like start decentralizing actually get traction like they're just killing they have like over 50% of of the per deck volume now and it's by five one I've used and I've used like basically all of them and like fully self-funded uh yeah no Revenue either other than liquidating you sometimes um too big product speaking of starting centralized and making a lot of money what about robit that we're having a little little robit season beond started chilling it on Twitter the other day sellers are

exhausted yeah no I mean uh it's just it's continued burning burn another like 20 something percent of Supply since alltime high just uh patiently waiting yeah then you'll see if that the the front ofir sponsorship on Southampton uh Premier League team starts paying off too but it's funny it's like those things it's hard to you know you you'd hope there's some immediate benefit but I think it's mostly like brand and and recognition because then once you start seeing that you start like consciously looking around you're like wow there's a lot of gambling sponsors on all these platforms um or at least like stake and and kind of the the the The prominent ones but yeah no still still burning

much Supply and uh it's one of the it's the most deflationary token in crypto and and the only one of the few without a lot of or or any VC unlocks or or founder unlocks or anything like that yeah I guess like lastly um feel we should wrap this up soon uh we got like breakpoint a token next week so you'll probably see and I'd imagine that like so will be pretty volatile going to that I think the only talks people care about are like the three fire dancer talks as like in respect to soul soul price um those are on the 20th and 21st Singapore time so yeah um we'll see normally

conferences are bearish but like last break point salana ripped through that and like kept ripping after um so yeah we'll see what was the price last break it was like going into it it was like 17 20 bucks and then it was like 45 at the end and then it was like over 100 by the end of the year and breakpoint was in like October November so bullish break point this year is gonna be a lot different breakpoint last year there was honestly like no VCS um a lot I even think about like Deli it was like me Rinko and Golding there's three of us and this year we got

like massive crew so and I think a lot of uh you know people are like that so it'll definitely be uh different from last year's but yeah yeah um maybe last thing we're doing a uh we just announced we're going to do a crypto AI accelerator with with near so that's pretty exciting recorded a pod with him with him yesterday that was pretty good uh that guy's super smart obviously been he's actually been like in AI since he was 10 years old basically and was a co-author on the original Transformers paper um so that's going out and then we also released our Deli lab sort of

crypto AI thesis which the idea is like it's not really philosophical although I think we all know there are strong philosophical reasons for why crypto sort of is good for the world or at least not having for the world we focus mainly on the actual substance of like what is it about crypto that enables you to make better AI products or you can make without it and go through the St so yeah if you're a ctoi builder please apply all the links are going to be on my my Twitter and all right I think that wraps it up right

yeah all right guys hopefully the crypto markets more interesting next week or in two weeks gets more life yeah [Music]