The AI Apocalypse: Is Crypto Ready for a Comeback?

Transcript

Are we at pico top? Is this just another speed bump on the way to new highs? When it comes to the whole AI trade, >> the charts just look like a standard altcoin, you know, that just went parabolic and has now broken the trend. >> There's a lot of people losing their minds with this drop. And I mean, it was pretty heavy. I'm still in the camp of holding for a few years. Don't think this is it. >> Every 2 to 3 weeks, you have a chance to make 100K, but every day you have a chance to lose 100K. And that's like kind of what the market's like right now. You have those ch those chances are coming back now. All right, welcome back everybody to the Deli Hivemind podcast. I'm your host Kevin Kelly. This is the show about crypto markets, AI, and unfiltered

opinions. And we've got the usual cast of characters, Jason, Jose, etc. is joining me today. We like to say Yan's off on assignment, but sends his best and will be around for the next episode. Uh Jens, another good day to be doing this. I think the big headline and the place I wanted to start is getting everyone's reaction to what seems to be uh a bit of a an AI apocalypse in a sense, right? Or at least depending on who you talk to. Huge selloffs especially in kind of some of the higher beta, you know, memory names. The uh NASDAQ holding up decently well actually, but there's kind of this I don't know this feeling around that are we at Pico top? is just another speed bump on the way to new highs when it

comes to the whole AI trade. I want to get your guys' general thoughts on markets. >> I know Z probably has uh a lot of good thoughts on on at least like the memory aspect of it and the DRAM HBM selloff and and kind of what's going on there and who the big winners and losers of that are. But generally like I think if uh like if we go back to the last time we recorded this or this show like two weeks ago like was kind of looking at just like everything in general and I was like I don't know like indices look kind of like they're distributing a bit. Crypto is obviously just you know doing crypto things but um I was kind of in the camp that like I just didn't want to be taking any you know any new longs any risk any like you know leverage long

trades on on really really anything um at the moment. And since then, we've kind of, you know, sold off a bit. I I guess like some of that's probably due to, you know, some more escalations and stuff between the uh between the US and Iran and those conflicts going on there. We've had some like renewed, you know, renewed tensions or renewed strikes or whatever you want to call it has kind of, you know, spiked energy. Equities have, you know, started selling off again across the board. So, like I don't know. I'm still just like I don't know. Some AI names look pretty decent. A lot of them look like just like the charts just look like a standard altcoin, you know, that just went parabolic and has now broken the trend and is kind of just like bleeding

out to something that more resembles fair value in a sense. Um, TLDDR is I'm I'm still uh I'm still relatively cautious. I think there's still some move down in in indices, but I think we're getting close to some like levels I uh would be interested in buying at a at a high level on on equities at least. Um I still think crypto looks pretty terrible. I think Bitcoin still needs a while. I think just like time like I don't know like I said 48's the bottom.

Like we could still go there. Like I said that maybe a month or two ago is like where I think like price will bottom. like realistically it's less of a price thing and more of a time thing I think at this point um for Bitcoin. Uh so I'm just still pretty cautious. But I'm I'm like really curious to hear Zay jump into his uh you know I know he was messaging in the chats a little bit around the memory selloff and what he thinks it means kind of. But uh that's like my highlevel take on markets levels where I'm positioned. I'm not really positioned. I just hold you know core positions.

Z, are your bags finally selling off a little bit? >> They are. Yeah. Um, I mean, memory is a hard one. I don't I don't like I basically last week with the with the Kimmy new update. uh they introduced a new architecture that drastically reduces like memory usage and especially is moving stuff to to HVM and off like commodity DRAM which is a lot of what people like Micron and and and others do. And so I do think memory is a hard place to to like I spent a lot of time trying to understand it over the last sort of sort of two weeks and I basically just ended up putting it in

the too hard bucket where I just like there's just too many factors moving around where it's it's just hard to figure out whether it's and I still hold my my the positions that I that I bought. I think I'm I'm uh about break even on them or maybe up a little bit from from where I got in. Uh but I I was really planning to like buy a dip and I think uh Bubble Boy actually saved me on that. Shout out Bubble Boy with some of his posts on on the on the Kimmy architecture. Uh and I think the more interesting or at least what I've been bidding more of is is just the Neoclouds um in terms of like the high beta beta uh like AI exposure. I think that's the

mo more interesting bucket for me. Um, and then the majority of my exposure is still like very boring like the Mag 7. Um, and so yeah, I'm trying to add more beta with this drop to the to some of these NeoCloud names uh that I've been looking at for a while like uh Nebius and Cororeweave and Iron and and a bunch of these. Um I just think it's like an easier business to understand in an easier spot where you know data centers are going to be scarce for a while.

These things are basically like especially coreweave is like levered bet on on on data centers and AI demand right there's a lot of risk built into it for sure. It wouldn't be something that you should size as like a a giant position. I think 65% of the revenue is is is tied to OpenAI for instance, but I do think it's one where it benefits from uh I mean Cor is kind of hard to say, but in general the Neoclouds benefit from from like cost of intelligence going down in general, right? Like whether it's OpenAI or the big labs that are doing it or the open source models that that that that start to gain share, I think the new clouds do do pretty well regardless. And so, yeah, I'm pretty bullish on on on them and I've started to buy some of those names here. Um, and

then, yeah, the Mag 7 are in general pretty pretty unbothered actually still. And for me, I'm I'm like there's a lot of people losing their minds with this drop. And I mean, it was pretty heavy, but I'm still in the camp of uh holding for for a few years. Don't think this is it. um still think we have much higher to go as we sort of climb the the wall of worry in in my mind and kind of seeing the reaction has has sort of uh made that more obvious to me. I think there's a lot of people thinking it's over, a lot of people being carried out, a lot of people, you know, that I think in in Korea, right? It was like one out of 30 got liquidated on the first day.

So I I it was like the last week I imagine what it is now must be must be >> the remaining. >> Hopefully they they all log out of their brokerages and all start logging into Upbit. >> Yeah, exactly. I mean, the equal weight, I posted this in the chat, Kevin. The equal weight index is making all-time highs, which is like super interesting. It goes to show how like this carnage and this like sell off is really been AI, right? Um, and so our bubble that we live in and just in general, they've been so hot, so everybody's talking about them and everything, but a lot of stocks are still doing like pretty well, right? Um, and the indexes aren't like it's not

like they've gone absolutely slaughtered. Like the S the SP like obviously the NASDAQ's done worse having a higher concentration of like tech and AI, but like overall the stock market looks fine. It's just yeah the highest flyers sold off a lot and like I don't know this is just like bound to happen regardless of like the underlying fundamentals at times like things just can't be going up. Yeah, like Sandusk is still up what 332% this year and has drawn down like 60% recently, 70%.

Like something that we're kind of used to in in crypto, right? Um I think that's that's the big thing too with all of this and and why I kind of tease that question. It was almost a bit loaded is yeah, when you look at the performance, I mean Micron and Sand is still in the top four, right? in terms of year-to-day performance across the S&P and what goes up violently so oftent times has pretty violent pullbacks and then when you add in the leverage I mean the Korean stock market selling off and everyone making headlines about that there's two stocks in there SKH highinex and s and uh Samsung that make up you know 50% of that index and so when you have gross returns like we were talking about the last couple weeks naturally you're going

to expect pullbacks here and then when you add on how much leverage and the approval of those, you know, levered ETFs for Korean traders at the end of May. Like, you knew something like this was bound to happen. Um, and now the question is, are they trading now at multiples that warrant to buy the dip or is it to Zay's point a little bit tough to discern what the future of memory and let's say pricing power for these companies will wind up being and it's just better to buy layers deeper something that's more picks and shovels like the Neoclouds, Mag 7, big hyperscalers that have already installed compute bases, right?

are not necessarily dependent on or as dependent on these massive capex builds and data center builds that might not go live for another year, two years, three years. Um, I think it's a good way to think about it. >> How are you how are you thinking about it personally, Kevin? Uh, because I know you're like, you know, you're you're relatively close to the AI trade, but you're, you know, you're not in the weeds as, you know, like somebody like PD or something, right? So, how do you kind of balance that for yourself personally in terms of, you know, just taking maybe a higher level mag seven bet versus something more targeted on memory, for example?

>> Yeah, it's a good question. I um I try and make it as simple as possible if I can and so have done a lot of digging and thinking about I think like we all have where value winds up acrewing within the stack, right? And I've gotten, especially talking to people like Z, I've gotten more bullish on the NeoCloud bet, especially over the last few months. I think the demand for the demand that's coming from AI and therefore the demand for compute is only going to accelerate. And the whole every time we see one of these big open source models come out and potentially threaten open source versus closed source and maybe there's a bit more of a threat to some of the frontier intelligence,

right? frontier models that trend of more intelligence for cheaper, right? Or intelligence per unit of compute, as long as that is continuing to decline in the aggregate, I I do subscribe to that thesis that it opens up a ton of new use cases. And even when I talk to people out because I I think like all of us do, we try and talk to people outside of what our day-to-day looks like, right? Like I've got friends who aren't in AI. They're not investors. They're, you know, doing doing um I'll call it like normal jobs compared to what we do. And when you talk to them about what the capabilities are, like it's almost like light bulb moments for them because they're not following this stuff dayto day. They're not even, you know, using a lot of them are still using Claude and Chatbt as

chat box chat boxes chat bots or like search engines. And so there's this one side of the barbar where there's all this agentic build going on, right? And agentic systems. And then on the other, you have the vast majority of people who still aren't really up the curve yet. So as simple as it sounds, I just think that the demand is still the potential demand for this is so much higher than it is today. and the pie is just going to get so much bigger that it's hard not to almost blindly kind of ape the Mag 7 names, the Neo Clouds, maybe take a little bit like I've got a little bit of Micron, I've got a little bit of SanDisk, like just as more of the higher beta sentiment plays, but maybe they're not my strongest convictions, but like I

I don't want to be on the sidelines because all of these I think all of these pieces wind up doing well to varying degrees and I I'd rather own the basket than try and be super super concentrated. especially as all this stuff is moving really quickly. >> Yeah. I mean, that's kind of like cuz I've been like asking I asked this question to Zay like several times over the last couple months. Uh maybe even going back to last year. Um I've asked other people because again it's just not the area I'm you know an expert in by any means. And I think for me like I landed on like a uh kind of like a similar approach. I'm pretty much just like carving out x amount of my portfolio that I want to go to AI stuff and then within that I just build up

essentially if there's an ETF that exists that covers one part of the stack great. If there isn't I'll make it myself with single names. Um and essentially just weight that based on you know like memory. It's not going to be a super high weight in my AI thing but you know something like hyperscalers later on or neoclouds or whatever. So, I pretty much just like am building it and just taking a basket approach across the entire stack and trying to weight appropriately um and rebalance. I haven't been able to do any of that cuz I haven't really built this yet, but it's in in the process and maybe I'll share it when I'm finally done with it.

Uh but yeah, that's kind of my approach to it as a as a noob who doesn't really have a uh informed take beyond what you would read on any of the uh parts of the stack. It also does kind of make me feel okay watching this selloff happen, not having any exposure really. It's just like, all right, finally. Finally, I don't have to see these charts go up every day for a month and a half. >> It's like a little cathartic. >> Sucks to see other people win, doesn't it? >> I mean, there's also the the you can't help but bring or at least I can't help but bring in some of the macro side to this. And it's interesting. I mean, being along more broadly US tech for the better part of a decade, like I'm always

looking for I I think that's still an area that, as we just talked about, I I remain overtly bullish on. And you kind of look for these moments or these pockets in time where if you get large deleveragings or liquidations or like forced selling events, but your thesis is still intact, like that's the kind of golden ticket for a buy the dip, right? And I think we're going through some of that now. Um, still digging through. I think the market overreaction to like the Kimmy 3 release and all of that. That's still the camp that I sit in. Um, again, could very well be proven wrong.

But I don't know. I just feel I feel very comfortable and still highly convicted in in those bags. Um, for sure. One of the questions though is you know I think we can see how and we've talked about this a bunch the AI trade like the last few years have almost been kind of like narrative hopping in a sense and we saw this within crypto and then you saw it move away from crypto and go towards all things AI right and you can kind of see that in like some of these charts that we show where you're looking at like Bitcoin if you look back in early to mid 2024 right this is when a lot of the kind of AI trade was starting to ramp up and then you had a bit of a sell off but then you had these big kind of flows

into semiconductor ETFs, right? Semiconductor started to come back into evogue and then you saw like this consolidation so often like consolidation within BTC and then things kind of calmed down a little bit and whatever and you started to see BTC run up through the end of 2025 and then that whole trend reversed right where semiconductors took off and holy trade went nuts and BTC kind of you know fell 40 50%. Um the question now and one of the questions I want to ask you guys is do you think that a bare market or a pullback continued let's say pullback in the AI trade is the catalyst or like bullish for Bitcoin and then broadly more broadly speaking crypto going through like the second

half of the year like if we had this pullback be sustained is that a catalyst for Bitcoin and crypto to make the comeback or are the two unrelated or do you actually think that Bitcoin's the double whammy where if we get a sell off in US equities and the kind of broader AI trade correlations will actually go back towards one but to the downside which we have seen times in the past like how are you guys thinking about capital flows >> in the past if you asked me this a little while ago I'd been like you're insane to think that like if AI goes down crypto is going to do well um but like again, going back to that equal weight and going back to like the actual index values,

they're still near all-time highs. Um, and so it's kind of clear that a lot of the carnage is right now basically in most of the most speculative names. I think that if the stock market kind of just kind of like chops here and then like starts going up, but it's not like so speculation focused, right? like it's not on all the it's like the the the S&P is like at new all-time highs by the end of the year, but like the memory stocks are like flat or just up a little from now, right? If we get that kind of market, then I think for sure like you could definitely see a lot of speculative capital come back into crypto because that money now is

kind of like, okay, that speculative trade is over. Everything is still good under like the economy is still good. the whole stock market's still good, but that speculative pocket's over. Let's find the new speculative pocket, right? Obviously, if you were to get like a broad-based selloff in the S&P or whatever, then that's different story. Like, in no way do I expect crypto to do well under that scenario. Um, so those are the that's like kind of the way I would view it. >> Yeah, I think that's that kind of tracks what how I think about it. I do wonder um in the event of you know kind of like a like a deleveraging event or whatever and equities you know forcing things down pretty violently. I do wonder how

badly that would would uh mess crypto up. Like initially I would have been like all right like you know correlations go to one people on high leverage will get liquidated just like every other Thursday whatever no big deal. Um but I think because the AI trade has been going on for so long and so much of it has been brought has been made available to crypto people on you know hyperlquid Binance right like all the lighter you could you know pretty much trade all of these names um on crypto rails. I do think a lot of people in crypto have just generally stopped trading altcoins and have moved because like honestly like if you're a

trader like why are you gonna trade shitcoins right now like when you have micron you know moving 10 15% in a day right like why would you ever you wouldn't like if you're if you're like a trader that's just looking for volatility and things to trade you wouldn't so like if you're in crypto as like a speculative trader and you're not like married to the trenches for some reason like I would think you're probably out there trading ing these things over the last several months and if they get washed out or like if you get a huge like deleveraging further from these levels in those names, I think it kind of hits crypto speculation relatively hard or whatever's left of it because I think most of the speculators have, like I said, probably gone over there to trade. I know I've traded that

stuff a lot more than anything in crypto over the last several months. Um, and I'm not even and I haven't even been, you know, particularly active on the trading side of things. Um, the more violent a sell off, the worse it hurts crypto because I think it just wip wipes out, you know, a chunk of the small risk appetite that's still around um as well. So, I don't know. I just don't want to see a violent wash out. But, I don't know. It kind of looks like you get something again. And then if you get like a taco thing, like who knows, right? Like I >> I think the volatility point's a good one because like why would you I mean >> there's no reason to trade it. There's no there's no reason >> BTC is trading like 1% a day 2% ranges a day but like SKH highix or Micron or

DRAM or like literally any of these names are trading 15 on the way up and the way down right like 15% a day 10% a day these are trillion dollar like Micron wasn't a trillion dollar company trading 10 15% a day it's trading more than the mark it's moving more than the market cap of ETH in a day trading w like yeah there's no reason to trade all coins and like you could clearly see it. You just, you know, get a big watch list of altcoins and you just scroll through them and once you get past like the first five or 10 names that everybody's, you know, familiar with at this point, like there's just not there's there's no activity on them.

>> Jose, I'm curious. Do you agree with this tweet on the screen that AI is like the crypto trade? Like the like everyone's going to buy the info layer, but then you actually want to like invest in like the apps and stuff kind of how crypto's gone. Yeah, I think that's true. I think that's true about most new technology, you know, like every like every time basically the the infra layer starts off as like the high-tech layer, right? Every business that is now like commoditized and boring was once the frontier like telecoms or or you know there's like many examples throughout history and at the beginning like you can see that eventually it'll be commoditized but at the beginning it's just really hard right like with with neo clouds right now you can kind of imagine that the cloud business will

be commoditized eventually but right now it's actually really hard to serve these models you know at the speed and cost that that that people want you to. And so there's just like margin there. And it's also like the easiest way to to get paid I think in these in these upswings is to buy like so far AI infrastructure has outperformed everything right like the you can if you chart like the AI application revenue outside of you know OpenAI and and and anthropic it's like tiny like definitely sort of singledigit billions and then the infr revenue is is like hundreds of billions at this point you know across the the neo clouds and data centers and and clouds and everything like that. And eventually you

do need like I mean obviously OpenAI and Anthropic have inflected a lot but eventually you do need applications to come in and and and do this. But it's it's one of those where you can be right and just like like miss out on most of the the trade, right? Um, I do think like the OpenAI like anthropic, um, like one of the reasons I was interested in anthropic early on was was that L1 hearing like people make a lot of the same arguments that they made about L1's like this thing is super commoditized. Um, yeah, it's going to be it's it's there there's going to be no margin in it. Uh, all this kind of thing. And I do think eventually this happens, but I don't think it happens yet. And it's just harder to bet on the right applications, right? There's like a few that are that

are doing pretty well. The Lovables, the Hicksfields. It's always the problem of the video models, >> but it's just harder, you know. >> Yeah. I think one of the other things about the application layer that makes this tough both from a public markets, but more so private markets perspective because right now it's where obviously a lot of the value of these companies sits is that the cost structure is it's different than underwriting like your traditional SAS business, right? because your to add new users, your marginal cost to service a new user under SAS business was was pretty negligible, right? And here you've actually got the more usage that your application gets, which is a bullish signal for any type of, you know, startup or like more

mature company, the cost element of actually serving each incremental user is a real thing, right? which goes back to our conversation around open source getting better, opening up new use cases, making it more viable or increasing the margin, let's say, at the application layer for these companies to be able to build around. But like the infrastructure itself that powers an AI an AI application company, it's just a very different cost structure which I at least in my opinion like makes underwriting the application layer still still kind of difficult. >> I mean the infrastructure layer is just like I know this is going to be big. I don't know where the value will will acrue, but I know that models will need to be served, right? And they'll need memory or whatever if if that was your

trade. You know, they'll they'll need increasing memory as the context windows go up and you do more agentic flows and and agents work um you know, work on tasks for longer. And so th those those trades are like much easier to to make than trying to figure out what precise application is it video models, is it world models, is it, you know, um coding models, which is actually going to do well. >> And speaking of like stocks, crypto, those market correlations, tokenized stocks, and RWA is obviously becoming a a huge theme um you know, within called the crypto universe. How do you think this affects because one of the things I've been a little bit bit surprised

about and Jason maybe you've got more insight into this is I would have expected just given how nuts tokenized stocks and getting that exposure especially per trading like individual um equity names the fundamentals around something like hype like uh still obviously bullish on I'm surprised at the price action more recently. Does that is that surprising to you that we're at 55 or is that something just not even a concern? >> I'm not worried about it. Like I think if you have like a one week, one month, three month time horizon, like you might want you might be worried about it. But I think it's relatively clear what's going on here.

Um the trend in HIPP3 markets, just like the trend in wanting to trade uh stocks on chain with per um it's fairly clear there. We've seen like um there have been some tweets I think uh I could probably send you in the chat really quick kind of talking about like what's next for hype obviously how do they how do they break into US markets and there's you know kind of uh this feature that allows HIPP3 market deployers to have like kind of like allow list or white list for addresses that can you know trade those markets which kind of paves the very obvious way for you know like a KYC type market for US institutions and all of the trading

volume and stuff that brings. And then, you know, I guess it opens a question of like liquidity fragmentation. I believe there's some something like market makers can do to kind of bridge that gap between the permissioned and permissionless markets. Uh but anyway, like it like the trend is very clear for hyperlquid. I think uh or just like RWA per in general. You could maybe like lump lighter into this as well. Um, like I I think if you have a one to, you know, short-term time horizon, yeah, you're probably getting getting a little nervous. Like I could see this coming down to, you know, mid-40s or or even a little bit lower if we get like a violent type of sell-off across, you know, equities that spills over into crypto and you get just like a correlations to one kind of cascade. But

no, like I I'm honestly looking to buy if it comes like lower. Like if we get down into the like below 50, like I'll probably start buying again. um spot with with the cash that I raised a couple weeks ago. Um yeah, I I still think it's like the only really like one of three compelling things in crypto to to actually own that has a lot of secular tailwinds going for it. Um >> a lot of people have been saying that like clarity is bearish for it, but I don't know and like it's not just si >> what's bearish for it, >> but like clarity, >> but I don't know if that's like true. Um they it does seem like What do you think about them? It's clear that they're going to have a KYC gated version of it.

Um I doubt they would put KYC on the whole thing, but like if they had I'm curious though like if they had KYC for Americans, right? >> Yeah. >> Would that only be US liquidity? Probably. But if it's a if it's US and there's like enough liquidity in the US that that's not that big of a deal if they're like isolated. Um, but it probably would be segregated from the rest of the exchange, I would think, so that the KYC doesn't trade against the non KYC.

>> Yeah, there's again there's nobody knows exactly how it would work yet. Um, but yeah, there would have to be, you know, segregated books. I think uh I think there's a way that you know yes so like US liquidity can't trade against non- US liquidity but I don't know if that bars market makers from kind of doing both markets you know what I mean like market making both the permission and permissionless market and kind of bridging that gap in a sense um uh so there's probably workarounds and like I mean this is also like clearly the reason why trade XYZ is like a separate you know entity to hyperlquid right? Like the KYC permission markets

kind of falls on the HIPP3 deployer versus the uh hyperlquid like core exchange and business. Um, and I think that's clearly by design and like you had um like those threads going out like oh like what if a trade XYZ team leaves Hyperlid because you know like they have all this increasing leverage due to the success of PIP 3 markets right um but again like I think that's again more of like I don't think it's like a you know zero probability but I think it's like a pretty low singledigit probability I think it's like a pretty symbiotic relationship between the two teams and it's It's like is it easier to build an exchange like Hyperlquid and bootstrap

the liquidity or is it easier to to in-house a like trade XYZ type of business in Hyperlid, right? Like what's easier to do if push came to shove? Much easier for Hyperlid to deploy the markets versus trade XYZ to leave, get liquidity to come over, right? They might as well just deploy on other exchanges like lighter and stuff which I think they can do anyway. So like yeah, I don't know. Like I'm just not like I'm a buyer of hype. If it goes like I said lower, like 10 15% lower, I'm going to start buying. >> So you have cash? You're you're >> Yeah, I've just, you know, sold some bad things that I bought that went down.

Just harvested some losses and uh yeah, I'm just sitting on some cash. I have >> Bitcoin. I have Hype. Some ETF. >> Are you guys up this year, by the way? I'm curious. I was wondering this before. >> Uh without hype, no. But hype's like a huge part of my portfolio. So with hype, yeah, but without hype, I would be down >> for sure. >> Um, let's see. My crypto portfolio is, no, it's down year to date. >> Same. >> My stock portfolio is definitely up year to date, though. I just own the indexes. So, um, so it's like I don't know. That's how I like to live. Like if crypto is doing bad, I'm like, okay, my like real money is doing well. But I don't know.

I'm pretty I'm still pretty optimistic for the back half of the year in crypto. >> What's optimist? >> I wish you guys were going to be more bullish crypto here. Like Bitcoin and stuff seems to be holding up pretty well considering the stock market >> nuke. I think that >> but yeah, >> I don't know. I think there's a lot of interesting stuff going on like onchain is kind of back a bit to like different levels. Um again, we talked about this before. You're seeing more and more things kind of like do well. There was a funny tweet the other day. It was like um in crypto every two to three weeks you have a chance to make 100k but every day you have a chance to lose 100k and that's like kind of what the market's like right now which is true but like you have those ch those chances

are coming back now right like you're getting more of that those like experiments and like speculative stuff kind of come back so I don't know and like metadow eco I've been like really bullish on them and they seem >> have you participated in any of the uh markets yet >> in the ICOs >> like no the futurarchy markets yet. Have you? >> Oh, no. I don't trade the futarchy markets, but I've done some of the ICOs. >> Which ones? >> If you don't mind. >> Jurassic. >> Throw up that tweet, Kevin. They just got a They just got a skull coming on chain.

>> Um, >> what did I do? I did uh I did Cars the Hot Wheel. >> That one's kind of cool. Yeah, >> I kind of like that. >> And then uh I've done some other ones. I forget the I haven't done a ton. Um but >> have they all used the coliseum stamp or was it just the >> No, no, no, no. The only one I think that's done stamp is credible finance. >> Okay. >> Um >> I guess it's if they had raised prior they would use that. So I don't know if the other teams had >> Yeah. like a lot of the for instance Jurassic the cars the Hot Wheels thing these were both like low raises like so

the thing that's really nice about Metadow is that founders are incentivized to raise at like a lower valuation um versus what we've seen so much in crypto where like you raise at a high valuation and then it kind of just drips out right because founders get paid their tokens unlock on multiples of the ICO performance Right? So, you will you kind of want to balance like you don't want to do too low of a valuation because then you're giving like everything away, but you want you don't want to do too high, right? If like like the Hot Wheels thing raised at like a 625K valuation, right?

Like Jurassic raised at maybe like a million dollar valuation. Credible was like the Credible is more of a legit business. It was like 5 to 10 mil valuation or something. I don't know. But they're all like good valuations, right? And then the founders get paid if basically investors get paid. And so like everyone is kind of aligned. And I just really like that aspect of it. Um they're getting like a good variety of stuff, man. Like the credibles is like a good like payment company. They have some of the neo bank stuff. They have privacy things. They've now doing like this drastic thing.

Hogwill saying some order book decks just raised there the other day. again though at like a 300 and somethingk valuation. So, it's just kind of nice to like be able to buy stuff like achieve valuations and then you don't need it to be some like crazy billion dollar unicorn outcome >> even if it goes to like a 10 20 mil market cap. You can get a really nice return on like >> you know if especially if you're someone with like less capital, right? Um, and you're trying to turn like you're investing like few hundred bucks into stuff, right? Um, I don't know. So, they're they're doing >> they have they have like some good

momentum recently. >> Um, I mean, they got an upbit listing today, which is why it pumped, which at first I was really excited when I saw it pumped a lot and then I saw it was because of Upit and it just kind of makes me less excited because it's like I don't know. If you look at all the up bit listings recently too, they all seem to have like retraced the listing. Um >> the PA kind of like before it was like kind of like grindy higher which kind of like gener like if you know people probably know a little bit. So you probably have like people positioning and taking profits too. >> Yeah. I mean the if you look at the geo net one that one was like >> definitely grinded up a lot. Um so I don't know. So, I mean, like, yeah,

going to Jose's point about not being like too bullish crypto right now, like uh Kev, if you have like your Trading View chart, like one thing that I just like always do for like a gut check just to make sure I'm like not on the wrong side of, you know, a trade for example, is like if you just like pull up like just like uh go to indicators and just type Guppy. You know what Guppy is, Kev? I've showed this to you. Uh yeah, just add a new indicator. Yeah, G. Yeah, >> I think I think I got it saved. >> Yeah, you could use >> Is it this one? >> Yeah, this one.

>> Fine. Yeah, they're all like the same [ __ ] Yeah. So, pretty much it just gives you a bunch of moving averages. A bunch of short-term moving averages and a bunch of long-term moving averages. And now just like zoom. Yeah. So, you can see like the whole chart. So, like pretty much when the short terms are below the long terms, you just don't really want to be long. It's a bunch, right? Right. It's like separate like these these light blues, >> the blue ones versus the red ones. Yeah. The red ones are long-term moving averages, like a long-term trend and the short ones are the short-term moving averages, short-term trend. And generally when all of them cross through from the top or the bottom, it's like a trend shift. And so for all of the coins and you know, hype not looking good. If

you go look at equity markets, for example, you're starting to get that shift. So, it's just like when I see these like big long-term things that take, you know, weeks to kind of like momentum to play out and and roll over and shift, like it's like just not something like I I've generally found like not getting in the way of it is a better form of just like just wait. Just wait. Just I don't I don't need to buy the bottom. It's not an ego test for me. I'd much rather wait till the structure is um like either you know crossing back up or bottoming and not you know pulling away like the the acceleration of the selloff gets less and less and so like this >> this in here >> yeah the [ __ ] out of that

>> right >> you buy the [ __ ] out of that you don't buy the [ __ ] out of that at least I know >> this is BTC on the daily Right. So like I look at this one of two things. Like I don't need to buy this here. I think buying this above you know like s like above the reds like I think you know if it proves and put like no just like uh above the recent highs like I would much rather let this show me it has good momentum than trust that it's going to you know develop decent momentum. Um so like yeah this is just like a very good like just a standard thing I use all the time. just like don't get caught with your pants down on the wrong side of

like a higher level kind of trend shift. Um, and so a lot of yeah, like I said, a lot of the things I look at just like are kind of showing that and I'm just like, you know what, I don't really need to be long here. That's kind of what I was looking at over the last, you know, couple weeks with equity indices kind of rolling over, especially the Q's. Like the Q's look pretty shitty. Like like really shitty. ETH has actually been looking, even before you showed me that chart, ETH has actually been looking the best out of like a lot of coins right now. >> Uh I'm still not gonna like buy it because I just like can't. It's too much. But I'm just saying it doesn't >> we get smacked usually.

>> Yeah. >> But yeah, there like if you if you if you go with this like kind of like a filter on a chart, it's like there's not many things that are like, "Oh yeah, this looks [ __ ] good." Like this is a nice retest of a strong trend. Like all of them are like, "Oh, this is kind of like we've retested the trend several times over the last month and now we're finally not really bouncing from it. We're actually kind of rolling over. >> Just just scrolling through the list just trying to find >> things that I mean DXY looks great.

>> Yeah, the dollar looks good." So yeah, that's why I'm not really bullish crypto because almost all of the names in crypto that I want to buy kind of look like they're getting [ __ ] smoked and probably going to not do too great for the, you know, short term and then I'll just look to buy it when there's some kind of structural change. Fundamentals look good for hype, so that's why I'm not worried. But >> the multicoin tweet was so funny to me. >> We're not selling, but >> it was just a way to shill Zcash. Like it was just honestly it was like chef's kiss. It was it was such great bag work.

Like I actually think they they might have actually sold some. That's what I saw people saying the next day. But I didn't verify that. I don't know. It's um >> but it's true though. Like people should some >> like people should be able to sell without like man like >> it's why crypto is kind of lame. Everybody pocket watches each other and >> you can have you can have better wallet hygiene though. >> Yeah you can. And not like it's not it's not that hard to not every wallet to be tagged. I think especially on something like hype where you're mostly buying it on the market.

>> It's kind of >> I saw and um Alex from Nansen or Alec >> um get into this big argument about like transparency being a good or bad thing. And I was like this is the dumbest argument because this guy runs a [ __ ] onchain analytics company and this guy's an investor. like why is this argument happening on my timeline? Obviously, they're never going to agree on anything. Um, but yeah, it was funny though cuz he shilled Zcash and Zama after that, right? This is why we need privacy. Uh, speaking of Zcash, want to pull up the Orchard stats.

>> Yeah, >> the Ironwood stats, I mean. So, yeah, Zcash launched as like a reminder. Uh, Orchard pool is the one that had this bug that was found back in uh beginning of June. I think it was like June 3rd or 4th. Um, and that's when Zcash dumped like 70% over the next day. Um, and so they made this Ironwood pool. And so Ironwood is the exact same tech as the orchard pool, the the orchard pool that was patched. Uh, but it's also formally verified, which means that you don't have to trust um, formally verified basically means that the math is all correct. It doesn't mean that it can't there can't be a bug, but the bug would have to be outside. I'm not like I don't

really understand exactly how to explain it all, but it's basically like formally verified means that like the circuit all the math like checks out. There could be something wrong outside of it and like the the verification of the circuit of like the math. Actually, I don't even want to speak more on it. Basically, it means the math is good. There could still be an I don't want to I don't want to make it seem like it means exploits are impossible, though. That's basically all I'm saying. But it's like very very low odds. You can look more into what formally verified means later. Um, so yeah, they launched this new pool. It went live yesterday. And basically Orchard now is in withdraw only. So you can't put money into Orchard, you can only take it out. So you can either put it into like a transparent address,

which you could always do. Um, or you can move it into like Ironwood, right? And so the more and more Zcash that moves from Orchard to Ironwood, you get you have that little pie chart there, right? that says supply verified. Uh basically the way Zcash works is that like if there was an infinite mint exploit in Orchard, you can only um take out the amount that's in Orchard, you can't like run Orchard to a negative balance, right? So the more Zcash that moves from Orchard to Ironwood, the less a potential exploer would be able to take out from Orchard, right? So it went live yesterday. It's been like 24 hours now.

There's four 4.4% 4% of the supply moved. It's pretty slow, right? I take that as a good sign. Um, if you wanted to get your last TRA with the drain, you'd know, probably be trying to move a bit more, right? Um, I think that a lot of people are just like comfortable that there wasn't an exploit. And I think the Orchard pool honestly will probably have I think by the end of the year, Orchard will probably still have at least like 500k Zcash in it. Um like you see Sapling which is an older pool that has 581K.

Um and so I think that you know over time people will become like this is just going to be kind of like a slow drip over time. Um and I think people will be more and more comfortable as time goes on. You'll probably see a few whales you'll probably see a few big movements movements at some point. Um or some big whales will like move a bunch. I'm sure that like the team or like early Zcash whales or whoever have like a lot in the shielded pool, right? And maybe they're just chilling in there for now or they're going to do it over like a really long time to make it like more privacy preserving, right? Um so yeah, it's like a cool tracker, but

good to see that go live. And then they have their new pool, Tachion, which is like the most advanced pool that they have that also is going to be coming out this year, also formally verified. And it's just like Tachion is more scalable and it's just like way way less lines of code, right? So just like the the the less and less code you have in the in the circuit and the pool and everything, it's just, you know, and you have all the best AI models like auditing this and the formal verification of everything. So again, doesn't mean that it's impossible to be a bug again, but like you're making the odds lower and lower.

>> Is there a reason you would use Ironwood over that one that comes out later or no? >> Um, well, like Orchard was around for a while and so if you're just like more >> like if you're in Orchard, would you just wait for that one if it's, you know, probably more secure, less lines of code like? >> No. Oh, if you're an orchard, cuz Ironwood is the same. It but it's also formally verified. Okay. >> And if there was if if there was um Zcash fraudulently minted in Orchard, >> you would want to get out before >> ASAP. Yeah.

>> Cuz then you're left holding the bag right now. Realistically, all of Zcash, even if you're transparent, if that happened, you'd lose it anyways, right? >> So, yeah. >> The market clearly doesn't think there was an exploit, right? based on how everything's moving and trading like it's >> but it's interesting like Zcash is actually kind of like sold off a bit after this. I think there was you could I think people were positioning a bit for like it to uh really pump after like Ironwood and then it kind of like hasn't and it's been a bit weak since but >> Kev uh slight change of topic before we leave. How do you feel about this uh war presser FOMC? Seems like it's the first one in a while that the market uh Cedus is posting from Nick Timmeros. I think I

I don't know how you pronounce his last name. It's the first uh first meeting in a while where there isn't really like a like there will be a surprise so to speak depending on what he does. Um how do you how do you feel about that? Do you think he's going to raise rates or not? Do you think um do you think this is like a good thing that he's not doing forward guidance going forward and stuff like that? >> I would obviously be surprised if he did a rate hike today. You've had a couple people like Citadel coming out and saying that they expect potentially a rate hike, right? Like a surprise of the upside.

I think Wars is caught in this uh rock and hard place where you don't want to look like a Trump puppet. But at the same time, in my opinion, objective opinion, I don't think a rate hike makes a lot of sense at this point, even where we are in the cycle. I think when you look at the economy is still running pretty strong. A lot of that again is being driven by AI and capex and you know, infrastructure buildouts. Um, but I think underneath the surface, there's definitely cracks. And even though equity markets are where they are, like what what do you what happens with a rate hike? A rate hike, you're going to get potentially some tightness further at the short end and long end of the curve. Rates are already and yields are already kind of exploding to the upside,

both in the US, but also abroad. Um, interest payments on our fiscal deficit are going to top a trillion dollars. higher rates makes actually pushing out um the debt monetization more expensive, right? So like rate hikes and you're and you're doing it in the face of what I think eventually will be more deflationary pressures and this inflationary period with oil being as volatile it is as it is and energy prices going up. The world before this was flush in oil. I think eventually we'll get back to you know more modest oil prices. I don't think that's going to translate to like long-term upside inflation expectations.

So, to me, it's just if you weigh the cost benefit of raising rates, I just don't see it. Um, not to say now, the important thing is that's what I would do if I were in his seat, but I'm not in his seat, right? And so, I can see why I think this is going to be contentious or why you're going to see volatility around later today. We're recording this. It'll come out tomorrow, but we haven't actually had the Fed come out yet. So, we'll see how well this ages. Um, I think what it means is there's going to be a lot more volatility around these things. Like, these are actually going to become trading events again, right? Especially because to your point, there's not going to be forward guidance going forward. I think that's I I can see why that can be the right move, right? because the the

Fed and Powell almost became a bit of a puppet himself like having to project too much to the market and you know answer too many um questions from I would say uninformed people that were asking those questions. In my opinion, I I I I don't mind not having the forward guidance, but I think you have to take lead from what the market is telling you. But right now, going into this rate hike, the market's split. So, if you're the Fed and you're looking at this, it's like I think it's I think it's a I think it's a hold situation and then you hold until probably September and September will be the one that actually probably there's more fireworks because that's the last real opportunity for you to do something before midterms, right? And if you don't like or you stay on hold from now until September, the odds that

you're going to raise it October is is pretty slim in my opinion. Um, but yeah, it's a catch22 of trying to not be a puppet for Trump, but and have your own independence, but at the same time, I just don't think objectively it makes sense to raise here. >> I'm in I'm in a similar camp. Um, I mean, like, let's be real, like the Fed independence, like yeah, they've been like pseudoindependent for a long time. It's regard like going back, right? Like Yellen Powell, like everybody kind of has to work with what they're, you know, the what they're given and the administration they're they're currently serving under, right? Um I do like on the forward guidance thing like I I think it's like probably a good thing.

Um I think I I like his initial interview like I I think it makes like perfect sense like at at a point like the previous Fed was becoming like an input into their own decision-m process because of how consistently they were talking to markets, talking about specific inputs in markets. Um, and that essentially kind of like dilutes the signal to a a strong degree of the inputs they use to make their decisions, right? Um, so like I think this kind of goes back to some something more resembling like what it should be.

Again, I don't know if the market's going to like that or if it's going to, you know, be more volatile because of how it's been conditioned over the last, you know, couple Fed shares. Um, consistently talking to markets, talking to inputs specifically and things like that. Um but like yeah I I've always been a like even with equity reporting right quarterly um quarterly earnings reports things like that like I've always like said that like these kinds of uh guidances uh forward guidances whatever talking to market so so occasionally really shifts the focus for investors and things to short-term stuff rather than like what's actually you know you know what's good for a business over a quarter or two might not be the right decision over a

year or two and I think when you have a lot of these things both at the high level with the Fed as well as at the low level with companies, it kind of distorts a lot of market signals um that otherwise have historically been like really potent. So um yeah, I think this is the right move to go. I I just don't know how it's going to play out. Yeah. And and again, I would just round it out with like you're you're literally seeing global government bond yields, right? This isn't just the US, but this is an aggregate of US dominant, but you've got a bunch of other developed countries, right? Think of like the UK, Europe, etc. Um, I mean, those are those are now starting to all break out, right? You

saw a little bit of a pullback this week, but like directionally the trend has been up and it's it ties into a bunch of stuff we've been saying for years, which is all these countries are running pretty sizable fiscal deficits. The US isn't the only one in this camp there. everything going on with defense spending and war and even just trying to reshore manufacturing like that's going to require a lot more capital that some of these countries simply don't have or their growth rates don't support. So debt becomes the answer and again that's starting to put pressure on long end of the curve. Like one thing I'm I'm glad I'm not sitting in is long-term treasuries if I'm being quite honest.

>> Wait, you don't want to fund all of this? These are the This is like the This is the chart I want to see Bitcoin have soon. Like I want I want breakouts this way. I don't want this to be longdated government bond yields or like the you know the dollar index. I I want this in the bags. And >> what does this mean for like next because it seems like this should start to show up in inflation right at some point as they try and lower the as they try and make rates go down. >> Yeah. I mean, the the counter is if you cut rates or you keep rates where they are, you're allowing inflation to run more rampant if you believe that inflation is going to be a big issue. I also just don't think this is like the

uh hammer in search of a nail problem. I don't think raising rates 25 basis points today does much around the energy oil dynamic or inflation. what what that translates or or reads through to inflation like I don't think it really matters to be honest where this could wind up kicking us to tie it kind of full circle on our conversation is the I can see the bare case longer term this might be a 2027 or even 2028 issue but we talked whatever it was a couple months ago about how a lot of the AI buildout now is getting shifted from equity financing and and balance sheet financing right with a lot of these hyperscalers having massive free cash

flow to being debt financed, right? And a lot of these kind of offbalance sheet project based financing for, you know, tens of billions of dollars of of data center buildout. What this does do is if yields continue to push higher and and financial conditions tighten, it does have a um ripple effect into broader credit markets, right? You're starting to see this actually over the last couple weeks with some of the big tech and hyperscaler um bond prices selling off, right? And and CDS buying, which isn't in itself necessarily a big red flag because there's multiple things or potential reasons why CDS could be rising. But the general point is if financial conditions get tighter, if

credit becomes more expensive, if debt financing gets more expensive, all of a sudden some of the math on some of these projects may not make the most sense, you know, as you start to eat into what the potential margin in because of interest costs and just what the cost of of getting that capital will be. That's where I think again it's not a today thing, but it's something to keep on the radar of where if you're looking for bubbles like the AI debt bubble is one that can that can become very real and this only works to um hinder that eventually or like potentially pop that >> like Yeah. Like I I kind of look at this in like one like like in in one kind of way. It's like okay like yeah interest rates are are high and they're and they're creeping higher, right? and you

have kind of like this inflation scare with like the energy shock and everything going on, right? But like to Kev's point, increasing rates by, you know, a quarter of a percent does probably doesn't really do much on that side of things. But what it does is it it makes borrowing more expensive. It increases, you know, the debt service on the existing $40 trillion of debt, right? So like the bene the the benefits you get for you know curbing or potentially curbing or maybe not even curbing inflation pressures uh pretty much get like outweighed and completely overshadowed by all of the negatives you get on the flip side. Debt service costs going up all these other things which

then continues to put pressure. It's just like you're not in like a great spot. Like it it like and at the end of the day like I think the Fed has to uh like like when push comes to shove there like inflation is what's going to you know they're going to let in like that's that's the release valve for the debt. It's not like they're going to like like they can't raise rates very high. Like it's just not the math doesn't work at at a certain level which isn't that far away. And so like that's just like ultimately how it has to play out. like it can't play out any other way.

So yeah, like so yeah, like that's my it's like if you hike like I think yeah, the marginal benefit that you get is just completely washed out from everything else on the other side of the equation. Uh which then just brings forward the decision-making timeline even even closer for it. So yeah, it's just like I don't know. I don't I don't see like how they hike uh the credibility thing. They'll probably be like, "Oh, he's a puppet." But like I I just I don't see it right now. Like I just don't think it makes any sense. I think the things to watch it's it's less less the Fed and more what happens at the oil market complex or or energy markets and just

this whole thing we've been talking about you know for majority of this conversation around the whole AI build and and tracking where the economics if the economics there start to break down which I don't think they have yet but you know this is part of the the bare case that people keep hollering about is is the debt financing side which rates obviously do play eventually will play a a bigger role in >> what what is the uh CDS of Oracle like what is like if you were to like convert that into like what's the implication like the market is placing like what odds on on their debt default?

>> That's a good question. Um I'm not entirely sure to be honest with you. >> Yeah, that'd be that'd be cool to know. It's obvious obviously high. >> It's a lot higher than it was than it was a couple years ago. >> Obviously a lot higher, right? Um, but again, they're just they're just kind of like uh benchmarks. A lot of times you're looking at just what the change has been. And it's not to say that, you know, Oracle's necessarily going to default, but it's just a a risk gauge, I guess you could say. But there's a lot of hedging that goes on with this stuff, too. So, like I I think some of the CDS concerns are, especially for the hyperscalers, are are overblown. I don't think they're going to default on any of that type of debt, but um but debt's becoming a better part of the story, you

know, and something you got to definitely keep track of. >> Anything else? Do we want to talk about FWA quick or >> Yeah, that's that's a that's a good place to end it. What What do you make of going to FWA and just kind of how the mechanics work quick? But like >> I'm curious to get your guys take on the whole gotcha market right now and like the to me it seems I mean obviously there's certain markets where uh I think it's a good business model for those who are actually offering this. I think there are certain things like Pokemon cards and even maybe some of the Hot Wheels stuff that uh it's tangible at least right with FWA. I don't know. It just to me it seems pretty gimmicky. But

>> so >> maybe I'm missing something. >> So I'll tell you my take. First of all, I own this. >> I've been playing it kind of aggressively. Um I'm also not >> interested in the game. Okay. Like I'm not interested in what >> what is the game? >> Yeah. So I I guess just also in like gacha and all this stuff in general is something like I'm personally not interested in but a lot of people it seems to be picking up a lot of steam. A lot of people are interested in it. A lot of people are playing. They like to do this gamble thing. FWA essentially is this but it allows um individuals to kind of like be the house here and be the liquidity providers, right? Where they're pairing

NFTTS from different collections. You might as well open up the site. people can come in and they can pair one of their NFTts with ETH and like you know basically you're the ETH that you pair it with is like what you think is the fair fair value price of this and and then people buy these tickets right like they do in a normal gotacha thing and then um you know your your EV is negative you're normally going to draw shitty NFTts all the time but there's like a punk in there and there's like a legendary punk in there and so you could win something that's like worth 350 ETH, right? Um, and so it's very similar to like the Pokemon card pack things and all of that. Um, I think what's interesting here is kind of like the

like the the token incentives right now are super heavy. Um, um, so sorry, when you when you draw one of these cards, you can either choose to keep the NFT or you can take 85% of the value in ETH or you can take 85% of the value in their token FWA. Okay. And then every day 2% of the supply is going to purchasers that played this game. Okay. And those run out like August like second, third, or fourth or something. Okay? And the only way to buy the token FWA right now is to play the game. You can't buy you can't buy FWA on the open market. So all external buys right now are turned off. So, if you go look at

the chart, if you actually click FWA at the top, um it'll actually bring you into it'll bring you into the buy and sell mechanic. And you can see that on buy, you can't do it, but you can only sell. So, the chart looks like a continuous honeypot and rugpull kind of, right? It's just like DCA up and then like somebody decides to sell a lot and it dumps, right? DCA up, right? Because you can only buy by playing the game. And so, it's like a very slow process. You keep drawing these things. And so this is like how the distribution has been ongoing for it. Um and uh I listened to some stuff with the founder.

He spoke recently that like he's probably going to turn external buys on when the emissions are done. So that'll be like August 3rd or 4th or whatever it is. I forget what it is. Okay. And I don't know if that'll be bullish or bearish. Okay. It's possible this thing like all blows up then and then like people are like, "Oh, I'm gonna hold for the external buys." But then nobody wants to external buy. I think with what they're doing here though is like they started with NFTts, then they start to add ERC20 tokens into this. Okay, so now you can pair with like meme coins and stuff. They're going to start adding support for like other kind of collectibles and stuff too, right? So you can see this becoming a platform where it just has all of the different it's not just NFTts, right? It's also

like tokens. It's it's um hopefully start getting like Pokemon cards, stuff like that on chain. Um, so no, there's like a there's a good amount of my thing was like I hate using [ __ ] Ethereum and this thing got me to use Ethereum and so that's like worth something to me. Um, and yeah, like I'm I'm straight up gambling with this right now and it's possible that the FWA bag goes to zero. So I don't want people I don't want it to seem like I'm super convicted in this, but I think it's like one of these things that comes around that's kind of cool, right? Like we've seen a lot of things that come around that kind of get people's attention. We saw it with Frentech, right? We saw it with um what there's a lot of examples of things

that get the limelight for like a few weeks and then die, right? And so it's like definitely entirely possible this happens here. But I think that there is this there, you know, Neil sent this to me. All right, Jose, take it easy. We're gonna end soon anyways. Um I think, you know, Neil sent this to me on the weekend. And I was like, this thing would have cooked in 2021, right? Like when NFTTS were the hot thing, this thing would have like gone insane. Um, but I think now like there is a real gotcha meta. Uh, most of it's on Salana.

Uh, but there is like a real gotcha meta now and people are genuinely interested in this. And so I think a lot of people are bearish on this cuz it's like the NFTts and everything and people don't care about that anymore. Um, but I think playing for its favor is the fact that like this gotcha thing is doing well. This builder is like pretty respected within Ethereum. Um, I've had like a lot of people that I respect. I had one tweet about FWA and like tons of people I respect liked it, which is like good signal to me that like a lot of smart people are interested in this. Um, so yeah, we'll see how it goes. I think like the distribution for me the coolest thing about it was like the distribution of the token and so that's why I kind of

got interested in it. Um >> I mean yeah usually when it's hard to buy a token it pumps a lot right when the friction is there. That's like what it was with like the early days with like bridging to all those other you know like harmony chain and everything. It's like if you you know went through the effort to get over there and get the token on the one you know marketplace decks that existed like you were early enough. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean I was playing I I played a few rounds and I kept losing. I'm like, "Okay, [ __ ] this. I'm just going to buy the token." And then that's when I realized you couldn't. I was like, "Oh, you can't even buy the token."

>> And so when the emissions run out, that's when you can only like claim the 85% in ETH going forward. Is that >> No, you can still claim it. No, because you claim it in the token because it buys it in the pool. That's why >> it'll just it'll Okay. Yeah. Um, but they're going to turn they're going to turn like buybacks on for the token. Like basically, will the game keep working once these heavy incentives run out is the question, right? And the odds would say that it's not going to work when the token incentives run out because we've seen this millions of times, right? The only reason I'm playing this is because of the token incentives. I'll be straight up, right?

um and thinking that like when external buys play come on that people will get excited again and then they're going to be able to get a lot of good other markets and stuff. But I don't know to me this is just one of those things every once in a while things come around that are kind of like interesting and like you could see it kind of working out um and if it does work out it could turn into something really big and that's kind of how I think about this. I love like when the token is just totally distributed and there's not all these unlocks and it's like every and like everyone who's playing the game is the ones getting the token and so that could be bullish too where like people who only trade on centralized exchanges are like I'm just going to wait till this

gets listed on Binance or something, right? And so if if if it's actually able to keep up the momentum and then it gets like real revenues and it starts doing all these buybacks like there's definitely a possibility here where this thing ends up cooking. Um, I don't know if the possibility is too high, but it's like it's there. So, >> 15 mil, you know, worth. And it is. >> Yeah. It's not bad. >> Yeah. And it's fun. I'll maybe we could end it with this. I I did a roll while we were talking. >> Okay. >> And uh it wasn't great.

>> I hate the friendship bracelets. I don't want to see another friendship bracelet in my life, man. >> Uh so this like going through the dynamic. So, so it was 0.107 or something, right? So, I'm already I'm already in the hole on this. >> Yeah. >> So, but if you go down, this is like the dynamic you're talking the dynamic you're talking about. So, I can like take 85% of this number right here back in ETH. >> Why would I not just take off FWA? >> Yeah, I mean, if you're taking when the game is more mature, I could see people taking back ETH, right? I'll I'll do this over here and let's >> the other way I guess to play this that the one way some people are playing this

right now is they're taking everything back in ETH and then when the daily incentives come out for that 2% of the supply they're just selling the FWA token and they're hoping that like they make out ahead by doing that, right? But for the more adventurous folks who are just buying FWA and hoping that like this thing ends up cooking uh once it becomes more mature. But we'll see. I mean, you'll basically know within like a couple weeks if this thing is going to last or not because both the incentives and the external buy like the incentives will be done in like a week and the external buys will uh probably be be turned on in like a week and they'll probably put some buybacks on in like a week or so too, right?

>> What they got to do is they got they got to get more markets. They got to get more pe more things that aren't like just NFTts. You need like you know CSGO skins. You need [ __ ] Pokemon cards, Magic the Gathering cards. You need [ __ ] that like people that aren't on crypto Twitter want >> for sure. I mean, it's a big it's a big one of the reasons I think it's taking it's starting to try and take off is like if you're the issuer of these like you look at like a courtyard right somewhat or a collector cry like those types of models really good lucrative business models if you're the if you're the if you're the one who owns the issuance or you you're the one who owns the game itself being an LP seems like a pretty big good

uh go to that if you you can actually see how much I want to see how much that punk has made on the main page. Oh, >> so let's see. So like in six days. >> So let's see. Okay. In 6 days. Okay. So the punk in a day has made 90 E. It basically needs like uh what is that like another month to then like break even, I guess. But the odds of like pulling that punk, right, is like so insanely low. Um, it would be really like that punk is probably going to make money. It's just like it would be really bad luck if they didn't. Um, but I don't know for the LPS at all if

like for the LPS of this of like a rare NFT. >> Are the roles like provably fair? Like is there is that like audited? >> Yeah. Uh, apparently I think there was like an exploiter. They used chain link I think. Apparently like the very early iteration there's some sort of exploit but then they fixed it. >> Yeah. cuz I'd be so pissed if I put that 350 ETH >> [ __ ] up and then it just like got [ __ ] yonked >> in like >> pretty good though, man. If you have like 20 E back, I would [ __ ] knack. I throw myself out my window. >> Yeah, it would suck to like list a rare NFT and then get it pulled like the first day, you know, >> dude.

But I mean, you can make like good P&L because the because the the odds like with the like the 85% you keep that 15%. Right. >> If Yeah. If Yeah. >> Like you're especially you're you're supposed to make essentially I guess you're supposed to make like a 15% yield because nobody keeps the NFT. >> Yeah. Unless it's a good one. The only way I would keep the NFT, if I pulled a punk, if I pulled a floor punk, I would probably keep it because then it's like easy to sell for the ETH.

I don't think if I pulled the floor ape, I don't think I'm going to ape it all into the token. And why would it take an 85% haircut if it's pretty liquid anyways that I can just go sell it on some NFT market? >> Why does that one have such a like for two days, why is it only 0.3 ETH? >> Yeah, I'm not sure. Because I I'd imagine it's like prorated based on like what like percentage of the pool value for NFT. >> Oh, maybe I wonder if it got pulled at one point.

No. >> Oh, it could have got pulled and then >> No, but if it got pulled your P&L would be crazy negative. >> It's interesting though. >> It's a cool idea. >> How much do you How much do you roll with like as much money as you want or >> Yeah. So, you just like do >> you can buy like five tickets at a time. They're pretty much always 0.1 E. >> Okay. >> Um and you can buy like >> you're literally just playing a [ __ ] raffle. >> You're playing a very negative EV raffle. Like the the odds are very bad >> on um and then then so the odds are already bad and then you're buying the token at 85%. You're you're basically expected to lose like 21% of what you're playing with. Maybe it'll change like

overtime and stuff. We'll see. >> Yeah. I mean, I'm unless FWA pumps, I'm I'm down 50% off the bat on that one role. >> Yeah. >> Straight up. >> Anyways, I think it's like one of those things where, you know, a lot of people are talking about it. It's It's pretty interesting. It's kind of like it's a true like cryptonative project, right? Like it has that feel to it. Um, which are always the things that I find interesting. And like, you know, I think people like to [ __ ] on I think Path had a good tweet about that and it was like you just can't launch like a new idea in 2026 without people just tearing you apart, right? It's like I think that we should encourage people like yeah, you can

>> you can say that this thing is going to fail. That's fine. But you it's like it's cool. It's good to get people building people on chain. Like man, who uses EON chain again? Like I do not have money on ETH and like I started to play this and now I do, right? >> And like I've been buying I've been like pressing the buy button on ETH. >> I'm like I can't believe somebody got me to press the buy button on ETH again. >> All right, good stuff, gents. Appreciate everyone tuning in. Till next time, go buy some friendship bracelets. Help me out a little bit.

>> Bye, Kevin. >> Yeah, I hate those bracelets. All right, >> see everyone.