Adam Stokes on the 2025 crypto cycle and macro forces

Transcript

GM. Good morning. Welcome to the Milk Road Show. It's a daily crypto show where ETH holders are suddenly financial geniuses again. I'm your host Jay Hamilton. It's Wednesday, August the 13th. Everything is green. Everything is green. Everyone is launching in L1. Stripe's launching in L1. Third circle is launching in L1. Ethereum is everywhere again. Everyone's sweetheart. Wall Street wants Ethereum. Things are happening. to break it all down with us. We are joined today by Adam Stokes, one of the great crypto educators and fellow podcasters. You guys should check out his YouTube channel if you haven't already. Before we jump in, I have to ask you guys quick favor. Hit a like, hit a subscribe wherever you're listening. It does the show and me a lot because it helps us get bigger guests

and helps us get in front of more people to make sure you don't get wrecked in the upcoming bull run. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure Markets. Grow your cash like a bank. No lockups, just real returns. It's also brought to you by Nexo, the platform that grows your crypto without locking it away. With that, Adam, welcome to the Milk Road Show. >> Good day, Jay. So great to be here. >> Good day. Oh, I don't get I don't get enough Aussies on the show. I like the good day. Yeah, good day to you, too. Okay, let's start there. Good day. It's it's 9:00 a.m. or around 9:00 a.m. your time in the morning. You uh you woke up.

You you open you open your computer and uh what are you looking at? What are you seeing? Give us a little behind the scenes here of the first few charts that Adam looks at the mind of the investor himself. >> Well, I'm seeing a sea of green here. So, this is what I always refer to the heat map because the heat map gives you spatial awareness almost like a a military officer in a battle space trying to see what's happening on the battlefront. And we can see of course green across the board with Ethereum h having a fantastic breakout. We've been waiting for this for so long. Let's face it, Ethereum needs to get past the $4,800 mark, really past the $5,000 mark to get into new alltime ter all-time high territory. And many people were concerned about Ethereum, Ethereum

being, you know, lagging behind the market. Uh, but I think because there was so many layer 2s on Ethereum and wrapped products on Ethereum, a lot of that liquidity and value was being spread around the Ethereum ecosystem. But the reality is Ethereum is an absolute powerhouse with Bitcoin crossing the $120,000 mark as we speak here. Fantastic. We want to see Bitcoin go to the 123 124 to go into uncharted territory. And ADA hopefully we can see getting back to its all-time highs. It's got a lot of work to do, but ultimately the market's looking strong. And what I do every day, as I mentioned, is I look at the heat map uh and then I look into the broader picture because as was discussing off camera. It it's good to come here for the Lambo, but we stay for the revolution. And what do we mean by

that? We come in here to we're drawn in by the opportunity of money. Let's face it, we want to come in here. We want to get rich. We want to get that Lambo. But the reality is once you're in here, you start to understand what money is. You actually start to understand how money is broken. uh you start to understand why the debt clock across the world is out of control and ultimately all markets that operate in market failure will fail. And that's why in my opinion the dollar, all dollars, your dollar, my dollar, the American dollar, they're all going to fail because it's all an unlimited Ponzi scheme of debt upon debt upon debt. And this isn't just a get-richqu scheme in Bitcoin. It is a get free slowly reality.

you. Okay, I want I have a few things I got to add here, but I want to also I want to go down to the macro conversation, but let's come back to the micro a little bit more. Uh, but first, I've got to say I had Mike Belshi on the show earlier uh from Bitco and he had this great comment. We were talking about stable coins, which was that uh fiat is done. It's on the way out and stable coins are the only thing that is going to keep fiat around for quite a bit longer. in particular the US dollar will likely win the st it already has won stable coins and so that's it's already we're already on on the macro side that the the money's already going that direction it's just these these shifts take decades not years which the

micro people want everything to shift in a day >> that's right and it's very Isn't it fascinating about stable coins because we used to talk about the stable coin being backed by the dollar and in this incredible macro twist of reality because the dollar is collapsing and no one would back the dollar. Instead of now this the stable coins being backed by a dollar, the dollar is in fact backed by the stable coins. Allow me to explain. So the the top of the tree for this entire Ponzi scheme of fiat is the is the bond market. So where does money come from? A central body, we'll go with we'll go with the United States as a central center of gravity. So the United States Federal Reserve, which is neither

a federal entity nor that has reserves of anything, comes forward and says, "Right, we we'll lend you money, but we want something in return." So the US government says, "Well, how about I write you an IOU, aka a bond, and you federal entity, which is neither federal nor has reserves of anything. So you, the Federal Reserve, can you please lend us money?" And they say, "Yeah, well, we want interest back on on that." So okay. So this is where money is born. It's born through debt. written by an IIOU aka treasury or bond is given to an entity that has no money and is not a federal entity and the money is printed out of thin air. That money that's printed out of thin air is then lent to the government and then the government has to pay it back with interest. But of

course, the government doesn't have any money because the government doesn't produce anything except regulations and laws and taxes and ultimately as they're continually continuing to expend expand and spend more money. they need more and more debt to service the old debt. Where we're starting to see this tip is recently when they had a a bond auction per se where the US Treasury came forward and said, "Who wants to buy our Treasury notes? Who wants to buy these IUs?" And the free market said, "No, we're not interested in it because you're printing too much of this money and the yield is not good enough. that is the return that I'm taking on your fake money linked to nothing is not good enough and I've got better options. And this is a a very crucial tipping point

in the history of the US dollar that the free market didn't want to buy these bonds. The free market wasn't going to buy these IUs. So of course the Fed steps in and buys its own bonds. So you've got the Fed which is not federal nor a reserve of anything but it represents the United States or is in the United States and it bought the US's treasuries. So you basically had an IOU written from your left pocket and then paid by your right pocket and then you owe interest on each other's on each other. So what that showed linking this back to stable coins is that no one wants to buy the dollar now. They'll use the dollar and they'll use it on daily trades that makes sense in the global stage. But what happened is when Tether

came forward and said, "Well, hang on. We've got billions of dollars. We've got all of this liquid cash physical or digital primarily." And America goes, "Ah, now we can find someone to back our dollar." So, as I mentioned, you had the stable coin that was backed by the dollar, but now the dollar is being backed by the stable coin because the stable coins have, we'll go with Tether, billions of dollars worth of liquidity. No one was buying the treasuries. And Tether came forward and said, "Yeah, we'll buy them as long as you recognize your treasuries as a real backing to our dollar." So you have this weird circle of the dollar backed by a treasury note backed by a stable coin backed by a dollar and it's just a circle of a Ponzi scheme of value linked to nothing.

>> It's no wonder that uh uh micro is so much easier to understand than macro like that those are that is that is so it's it's wild to think of how we got to this situation but I think everyone listening you know is understands that situation. I want to come back to the micro side for a second. Let's let's talk a little bit about uh I mean tell us about where are we in the cycle. Ethereum is nearing all-time highs. What does that say to you about let's we got to talk a little bit about ETH and ETH's price and where you think we could go from here. Let's start there.

>> Okay. So, as as you know, we got the four-ear cycle. Typically, what happens is you have the hing and then the year after the h havinging away we go to all-time highs. Some say it's dangerous to say this time is different, but this time is absolutely different. It's different for multip on multiple fronts. First of all, we've never had an all-time high before the h havinging. So, this is the first time in Bitcoin's history that we've had an alltime high. >> Yeah. And we've got the ETF. So, we've got a alltime high before the hings. We've got ETFs. We've got a USfriendly government with crypto when it before it was a complete opposite. They weren't even not friendly. They were aggressive towards crypto. So, America's gone from being aggressive, past neutral, into supportive of crypto. We've got ETFs, of

course, for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and more ETFs on the way. We have We've never had so much uh mining power in the history of Bitcoin. And equally, we've never had the institutions front running the market on a 4-year cycle. It's always been the retail investors. This is the first time in Bitcoin's history that we haven't had the retails here first or the retail investors here first. and the institutional investors second. So everything is >> not even here yet. >> That's right. They're not even here. And we can see this through multiple analytics where uh as example your views and my views if you look at the history of Google Analytics and YouTube searches in at this time of the cycle in the last cycle and the cycle before the views

were absolutely through the roof. And yet here we are, Jay, you and I, little crypto commentators sitting in this tiny bubble with a four trillion dollars sloshing around the crypto markets. More than$4 trillion US slloshing around and and the retail investors are nowhere to be found. >> So this cycle is different. However, I would argue that the four-ear cycle I I agree on this as well. I agree that when it comes to the four-year cycle, it's not going to be as aggressive or volatile, I should say, as previous cycles. Why? We've got bigger market caps. As market caps get bigger, they become more stable. As a very simple example, if you've got a market cap of a

dollar, I only need one more dollar for a 100% difference. But when I've got a market cap, as Bitcoin does, of over 2 trillion, putting a dollar into that market doesn't do anything. In fact, if you remember just recently, we had $9 billion worth of Bitcoin sold on one day. >> In the past, $9 billion of Bitcoin sold on one day. That would have crashed Bitcoin and in turn crashed the entire market. And yet, that $9 billion that was sold in one day, I'll bring it up on this chart here because I've I've marked it previously. And and this is actually quite interesting. like respect to the homie out there who who did this like you waited so patiently and and then you just decided you know what I'm good and

I'm out like respect to and and you didn't crash us cuz like you said this person could have taken the market down before >> they could have and some people saying oh never sell never sell it's like no he did his time he absolutely did his time and you know he bought $100,000 worth of Bitcoin many years ago and and then he cashed out. So this is this white line here. I'll make it a little bit thicker for you so that the audience can see. Um what we can see is that this white line is very historical. So everyone's looking at Bitcoin to US dollars in one daily candles. And on this white line, this is where $9 billion worth of Bitcoin was sold in one hit. So it's another example of why this

time is different. massive market caps, all-time high before the haring, ETFs, institutions are here, a crypto friendly US government, the list goes on and on and on. But when that $9 billion was sold in Bitcoin, to me, that was the most significant moment in my time in Bitcoin >> because it showed that it's so liquid. And what do we mean by that? It means we can extract money from the or fiat. We can sell out of our position into a stable coin, Ethereum, the US dollar, whatever you want. And the market does not even flinch. It shows there's there's a huge amount of liquidity and a huge amount of demand.

>> It is it is in the dayto-day it is important to step back and look at these bigger pictures and look at these milestones and it's such a great reminder. >> Why do people invest in real estate? Because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties. That's why I'm looking at Figure Markets. Their new democratized prime product backs your money with real cash flowing assets and returns up to 9% APY. It's the first real world asset borrow lend pool built for everyone, not just institutions. Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% A is offering you. Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idol funds. Go to milkroad.com/figure markets. If long meetings and judgmental

bankers are your thing, Nexo is probably not. Nexo is a premier wealth platform built for people who value their time and money. It's built for people who have idle cash lying around and want it to grow fast. Whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Forex pegged assets like USDT or USDC, Nexo offers up to 14% annual interest and access to cryptobacked credit in under 24 hours. Your assets need a platform built for growth. Join Nexo. >> Where where do we go from here? So extended cycle, not a four-year cycle.

Uh do we do we got 6 months to run, 12 months to run? And any price predictions or thoughts on targets on where Bitcoin and Ethereum could go? >> Jay, you keep hitting me with these great questions first thing in the morning. Lucky I've got my coffee here with me. Okay, so here we go. No one knows, but everyone's got an opinion. So, I I'll give the extreme left and right of arcs and then I'll give my opinion. So, the extreme left of arc, if you will, is nothing's changed. It's fouryear cycle. We play out as we have in the past. We do a big run up and then Bitcoin drops down 80% a retrace pulling back 60 to 80%. Nothing's changed. It's business as usual. Um people, the retail investors come in and buy the top. They

are the exit liquidity for us experienced cryptogoers and investors. uh the retail investors get wrecked. Uh they're very upset and you and I make uh ridiculous amounts of money. That's one side. That's what's happened in the past. Now we go all the way to the right of arc and the right of arc is no this time is different. The hings don't have that much of effect. The US government and other governments are adopting this as a strategic reserve. The institutions are here. The banks are here. The retail investors are also propping up the entire market. The dollar collapses further. there is greater understanding of how broken the dollar and all fiat is. And so we go into this extended super cycle where the dollar is collapsing so quickly because they keep

printing so much of this worthless crap. Bitcoin goes higher and higher and higher because it's a true safe haven for investments, not just for the fiscal markets, but maybe even for real estate markets and metal markets where people are saying, "Hang on a second, I can get a better return there." the supply shock hits us hits us even harder than what we've seen in the past and what we are I would argue seeing right now and Bitcoin easily crosses the half a million dollar mark moving into the $1 million mark that creates more momentum and away we go. So those are the two extremes we drop 60 to 80%.

>> What's sorry 60 to 80%. Sorry what's you're giving a percentage each. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I'm saying for Bitcoin, we we dropped the left of ARC is we drop 60 to 80%, the right of arc is that we go uh all the way up to at look, my forecast for the low end here is $1475,000 at the low end. That's that's where we're going. I would argue we could even do that in the next week, possibly in the next few days. $1475,000. That's that's my target that I've been looking at for over two years. That's where we're going.

>> But from there, >> there's there's no doubt. Yeah. Yeah. There's no doubt. >> Yeah, there's no doubt. It's going to 147 half thousand US dollars. We're nearly there already. I mean, because remember, we can do $10,000 in a week. We can do $10,000 in a day, but after that, I think 200 to 250 this cycle. And if we go into the super cycle, it's going to go to 500. But I think big picture, I think we'll be happy to see it around the $200,000 mark. Ethereum's going to, this is all my opinion, not financial advice. These are just my forecast. Let's have a bit of fun here, Jay. Bitcoin's going to low end 1475,000 likely $200,000. Ethereum's going to $10,000. XRP, I know the XRP army wants it to go to $500 to uh $10,000.

There there is just not enough money on planet Earth for that. I I I've got a lot of XRP. I would be happy for XRP to be $10,000 each. >> Yeah, right. >> That number's just We'll bring it down to Earth. XRP is going to I I think $4 easily. 5 to7 is my prediction. Uh Salana's $1,000 coin. I think Salana is underpriced. I think Sooie is comfortably going to $8, possibly $10. Uh if Suie gets more momentum, it's going even further. B&B, a powerhouse coin, a spectacular coin. I've loved B&B for years. I was buying B&B at $30. Um and that's comfortably going back to $1,000. Uh, and ADA. Look, ADA's I I love ADA. I've interviewed Charles

Hoskinson. I love the community. I love the project, >> but it's been around for so long. And you can see that you get on ADA. Like, what's happening on that chain? It's just a ghost. >> Honestly, there's just so much competition. >> There's so much competition and >> it's too much block space and not enough demand yet, right? Like, I guess you need you need more apps. >> Doesn't matter what the technology is, you need people to use it. It doesn't matter how good your back end in is, how good your marketing is, how good your logo is. If people aren't using it, and money's not coming in to buy it, it's not going to go up. So, ADA up, look, I want ADA to go to $5, but let's worry about crossing the $1 mark first. It's currently at 83.

I I think Polka Dot is done. >> Okay. Yeah, this is fun. This is fun. Keep going. >> Well, it's interesting. If you look at the relationship between Ethereum, Cardano and Polka Dot as people know you had Charles Hoskinson, Vitalic Butan and Gavin Wood. They were all working on Ethereum together. They broke up per se. Vitalic stayed with Ethereum. Charles went with Cardano. Gavin went with Polka Dot. Those are your three big contenders there. But the truth is, you can see that even Tron, if you look at the global charts, Tron is doing much better than both Polka Dot and Cardano. We're looking at the global rankings here.

We're going >> market Tron's got stable coins and that is the biggest narrative in in crypto other than crypto digital asset treasuries right now >> and and it's also got very low fees when you're using the network. So if you're if you're transferring money across the network and you know you can choose different networks, the Tron network is actually quite effective and it's quite efficient and it's quite cheap. Now there's a lot of controversy around Tron. I've got no issue with that. If you look at the the allegation of forging a white paper years ago, that was I think in the 2017 cycle. That's how far it goes back. But over time, it the the truth is it kind of works. And there's a lot of competition when you look at Salana.

People say Salana is the the retail Ethereum and Ethereum is the institutional Ethereum. Meaning the big boys, the big institutions. >> Yeah, I do. They use Ethereum. If you look at all the high-end players, they're using Ethereum. But if you look at the crypto casino and the memecoins, they're using Salana because, you know, you can make a memecoin on your phone in bed at night and launch it and away you go. So, and people get angry at which one's better. And it's like, it's not better or worse. It's just different.

The big boy in smart contracts is Ethereum. And the big players, the serious money, they're using Ethereum. But the the retailers and the dgens and the crypto bros, we're using Salana. And of course, there's there's big players coming to Salana where they can see there's a buck to be made. But who's using Cardano? Even though Cardano is a spectacular product, who's using it? >> No. >> And so, yeah, exactly. So, it actually doesn't matter how good your coin is. What matters is who's using the bloody thing?

>> Yeah. Yeah. Of course. especially as we enter this next phase of true adoption, right? Maybe up until now it didn't matter as much, which is why we do have so many coins that are in the top 50 that are zombie chains because yeah, you could just ICO, have good marketing, have a have a have have good community, good engagement, and then you could build a token that could go. But not anymore. I do like the the I keep hearing from my community right now that everybody's like make more Salana content like talk more about Salana you're talking too much about Ethereum right and it's quite honestly I mean you know being in media uh that's just all everyone wants to talk about

right now right so uh I I there's not as many people that want to talk about Salana right now and and Ethereum does well does better right now in the uh in the search terms so but when when I when I look at it I think I think the exact same way about Salana that I felt about Ethereum just 6 months ago, which is like everything's fine. I still am very bullish on Salana. And even if Salana only got retail and Ethereum was the institutional chain, there's a lot of growth, ton of growth from here for that for that use case. And so I think I I I like your your predictions there because what stood out to me about your predictions were ETH and Salana were two of your largest predictions in terms of

their their multiple from here. I was trying to do the quick math but I couldn't keep track of them all. >> Yeah, Salana's doing I think Salana's comfortably a 5x from here. >> Yeah. >> And Ethereum's a two to 3x from here. >> And and I I add on this Jay is that to everyone out there I remind you not to get tribal and and we're all guilty of it. We're all people. was like, "No, my coin's a better coin." I I remind everyone here in the first instance, you are here to make money. These coins don't love you. They're not your wife. They're not your husband. You're not cheating on them if you get another coin. But many people fall into this tribe. They're like, "No, it's XRP. No, it's this coin." It's like, "It's just

code, kids. It's all right. Everyone relax." And I can tell you very very honestly and bluntly, the big boys don't discriminate against profits. As long as you're not killing women or children or puppies or kittens, it doesn't matter. Do you think that the big boys are crying over no Microsoft is better than Apple? They're like, I don't care. I'll just Are they both going to make me money? Yeah, I'll buy both stocks. And when it comes to crypto, something happened in the crypto bros mind. Don't worry, I've been here as well. where we we started to see these coins as our religion, as our family, as our wife, as our child. And it's like, it's none of that. It's just a code. It's just a product. It's just numbers on a screen.

It's just an ecosystem. Now, if you can make money on both Salana and Ethereum, go for it. Like, don't discriminate against profits. Don't discriminate against profits because these coins don't know you and they don't care about you and that's liberating. But some people get lost in the narrative. They get lost in the tribe and and they will go down with a ship to say, "I will never ever buy any other coin because that coin's bad and my coins better. >> Have fun staying poor." >> It is It is It is the It is the It is a dangerous mindset to take, but I get why everyone gets trapped in it. Making money is awesome and exciting, and that's how everybody feels uh when

they're when they're when they get tribal. because something everyone that's tribal made money on that token and they're just they're in it for the long run. Uh but I agree this is tech and that's why there's still all the things that are happening with institutions and with uh regulation. It's very easy to look at them and there's some of those that are not for decentralization and not setting up for the necessarily the long-term ethos of crypto. But we need those things to create adoption to get this tech to the world. And that is more important to me than my coin or my token in the end because yeah, as you said, >> I I always like, you know, we >> we came for the money, but we stay for the revolution. As you said, it is the

that's why we're we're you and I are still here at least. I I got to bring up meme coins because I know that you like to dabble in the meme coins. So, we talked about the majors. uh give us give us some shot some takes on which meme coins you like right now and where you think there could be some good bets. >> Beautiful segue there Jay. So the reality is let's just touch on quickly when people some have said that meme coins are immoral and I just want to touch on the the macro before we go into the micro with meme coins because what is a memecoin? Well, it typically it's a picture of a dog or a frog or a dog with a hat on or a penguin or take your pick.

And on one hand, people go, well, how dare Dogecoin, as an example, a jokecoin, by admission from its own founders, saying, "This is just a joke." At one stage, Dogecoin was bigger than Ford Earth. So, think of this. a a memecoin that was made very easily and simply in the background by a couple of crypto bros on a weekend having a couple of beers. That that piece of technology, that meme, that picture became worth more than all the R&D in Ford Motor Company Planet Earth. Unbelievable amounts of money. The other thing to consider is that these these coins can drop so quickly. They can go from nothing to unforeseeable amounts of profit to unforeseeable amounts of loss.

they can go either way so quickly. Ultimately, when it comes to meme coins, they they are just the free market. It's just all of this is the free market. If you want to buy a memecoin, go for it. But equally, if you don't want to buy a memecoin, also go for it. So, those are the morals of memecoins. It's just a an expression of a meme in the free market using crypto as the backend to say who wants to buy into this meme and who wants to risk making huge amounts of money on it. an expression of attention of attention. Right.

>> That's right. If you look at peanut squirrel attention. >> Yep. Peanut the squirrel was a good example. If you remember when um a government came in and came in and confiscated and then murdered a squirrel um that turned into a meme coin called Peanut. And as you said, it it was the attention they memeized per se the attention on the the murder of a squirrel by a government. And consequently, many people bought into it. Now, you might look at Huck Tour, which is an absolute disaster in itself, and it can go either way, but I've made disgustingly amounts of money on meme coins.

And I've done it partly through luck, but partly through calculated risk. So, I'll give you my first example. I bought Dogecoin, craploads of Dogecoin in 2016, 2017. Years later, I get a phone call and my mate who's not really into crypto, he goes, "Stoy, how do I buy bit? How do I buy Dogecoin?" And I'm like, "Dgecoin? What? What do you want Dogecoin for? No one wants Dogecoin. Dogecoin's a shitcoin." And he goes, "No, no, no. It's pumping." And I said, "No, it's not. It's it's Dogecoin." Now, keep in mind, I had bought this coin and I held on to it for years and years and years. And then suddenly you had the perfect um storm of I think it was like Wall Street Bets and uh Elon Musk and all these things came together at once

and it just drove the Doge price through the roof. Anyway, I opened my phone and I'm rich. I'm rich off a a coin that I bought years ago and I'd held it and I had forgotten about it and there you go. Then I looked at Pepe as an example. So, I made a lot of money on Pepe and I made a lot of money on Pepe because to me it was very simple to see that this is a it has a lot of mind share. It has a lot of attention and it's all also kind of the epitome of Bitcoin or of crypto I should say to the normies saying to the mainstream no screw you we're going our own way. We're the trolls here of the financial space and Pepe in my mind represented that and evidently it represented that in the marketplace.

What I missed out on though, my friend, was shipp in it. Now I I was around for SHIB, the launch of Shib, but at that stage I'm like, well, how much money can possibly be made from another dog memecoin? But SHIB, as I understand it, I'll just quickly bring it up here. SHIB is the best performing memecoin in the history of meme coins. It's ROI at one stage, you ready for this? So from its from its all-time low to its all-time return is 24.03 million%.

24 million% >> and that's after it being down 84% now. So what we need to consider is that well this is where people come in and they go right okay I don't want to buy Bitcoin because I I don't want to make 100% I want to make 24 million%. And of course, everyone goes, "Well, I want to make 24 million%. I don't want to make just 100%. I want to make 24 million%." But the reality is memecoins are so risky. They are ridiculously risky. I should mention at at time of recording, just to correct myself, uh, SHIB is now up 1.3 1.39 million% to today, but from its all-time low to its alltime high, 24

million%. >> So, we're all hunting for that. like $10. I just had had to ask ChachiVT. $10 would be TW would be $2.4 million today. >> Put in $1,000. Can you just wind that up to $1,000? Because there is a video where this guy bought in the I he bought the SHIB ICO. >> What's that number, >> $40 million? >> Okay. So, what he did and he made this video and he's like all disheveled on camera and he bought into the the memecoin of ship at an ICO or just on launch for $1,000 and then it it dropped his holding dropped to about $800 and he goes, "Well, this thing's going to zero. I'm

going to sell the whole lot." And then, as you just described, it then went up to 240, basically a quarter of a billion dollars. >> And and this guy looked so broken. And you hear the story all the time, you know, that they made the move, they got in there, but they sold when it pulled back and then it went up to $240 million. Now, those instances are very, very rare, but it's a drug that everyone's chasing now. They're chasing the dragon trying to get that hit of life-changing wealth. But I remind everyone, higher the risk, higher the reward. Many people forget that, the second part or the first part, the higher the risk part. All they're focused on is higher the reward. I just want the reward.

>> We all want the reward. Memecoins can give it to us, but there's so many of them. >> Yeah. Do >> doing this is tough. Being an investor is tough. Investing. This is a there is a reason that for decades the entire investment industry was index funds and that's it. And then a bunch of people that were trying to do something else, a handful of people. And now with crypto, we're reopening the opportunities again to invest directly in stocks or in single tokens, which is risky and is very difficult. And so if you're still here and you're listening, then yeah, giddy up. Way to go. Like don't as as Adam is saying, these are don't don't lose through through the pullbacks. And

I mean, anybody who's here right now has been here all all year. They've been here for years and they're still here and they're here for the long term. And I think that like coming back to where we started the episode, there is still room to run. You know, it's like it's still an exciting time. I think we I would not be surprised to see a pullback at some point here. We've been ripping green for so long and we're so out in front of the S&P 500 that I'm like, ah, I wonder how long that can continue for. But over over the next six to 12 months, it's it's gonna be real good. It's gonna be real good. But okay, the one thing I do want to say though, coming back to your point, is what I think is so important right now, and I'd love to get

your thoughts on this, is right now is when you need to make sure you have an exit plan and you have a strategy for your investments for this cycle because as we go into, we're not in euphoria yet. We're not in retail's not here yet. We're not seeing it on our media numbers, but as we go into this into this phase, we're going to start to see all-time highs across the board. And we haven't even seen ETH alltime high. are just all so excited because it was down so bad. Uh but once we get there, it gets harder to make these sell decisions and you can't just moonbag everything.

And whether or not you believe in a super cycle or not, I really do suggest thinking about the way you're going to approach selling if you want to sell for some profit because everybody does want to take some chips off the table. Doesn't mean you take them all off the table, but just be really thoughtful about that. That's one thing that I've been thinking a lot about. I don't know if you have any thoughts on how to position yourselves as you look toward to exit with profit. >> You know what? It's probably the most important part of today's conversation and I'm glad you raised it because the biggest mistake most of you are going to make out there, my crypto brothers and sisters, is that you are going to round trip your bags and you are going to be my exit liquidity and I'm going to make

no apology for taking my profits off of the table because at the end of the day, selling is the hardest part of this entire cycle. buying is in fact relatively easily easy because we FOMO in. We're like, "Yeah, I want to buy that. Here, take my money. But I can assure you all when you wake up in the morning and you see that your portfolio is worth a million dollars and you've only put in a few thousand, it's incredibly difficult to press sell, particularly as you're watching it in real time and it goes a million dollars. 1 1 2 1 3 1 14 and then it drops down to 1 13 1 2 1 1 and you start to really work yourself up and then boom you wake up the next morning and it's at 1618 1 N then you wait and you say I'm going to

hold why would I sell now when it's going up and it goes to $2 million and you're at $2.5 million and like ride this thing out baby let's go and then you wake up the next morning bang $200,000 you've just lost $2.3 million so what do we do if you read my book 28 8 Pro trader tips, the art of trading, available on Amazon. Nice little plug there. One of my chapters is about determining your exit point before you go into the trade. And the reason why you do that is because it removes emotion and allows you to calculate your exit points and and profits before they arrive. I can assure everyone out there, if this is your first cycle, welcome.

But strap in because things are about to get crazy. It is very, very difficult. You you think it's scary when you buy crypto, you wait to the fear of selling crypto because you think if I sell now, maybe I could have made more money because this is where the greed is kicking in. I think we come in, we're fearful of on the the into the trade. That's the fear component. I'm fearful of missing out. So, you can't you buy in on fear because you don't want to miss out. You sell or fail to sell on the greed component because you're like, "Nah, baby. I want more profits. I want more profits." So how do we counter this? First of all, we determine our exit points before we go into the trade.

We do it with a calm head. We do it with focus and we did it do it with forecasts. Then once once the market starts to run away, which it is now, just as you can dollar cost average into a trade, that is as an example $10 a week every week into Bitcoin. Very simple, no problem. That's dollar cost averaging in. When we go to the top of a cycle, we just invert that. except instead of doing it as a quantity of dollars, we now do it as a percentage of the holdings. That is, once we get to a top, and it doesn't matter what the coin is. I'm just going to use Bitcoin as an example here, but you can apply this to any coin. I put in $10 a week into Bitcoin or $1,000 a week into Bitcoin, whatever my uh risk and uh budget is,

that's what I put into Bitcoin. Once I start getting to the top of the cycle or close to the top of the cycle because no one's going to pick it to the day. I know there's always some random YouTuber who says I picked the top of Bitcoin to the minute to the day. Look, first of all, there is no top to Bitcoin because as long as there's no bottom to fiat, there's no top to Bitcoin. It's always going to keep going up and to the right because the dollar is always going to keep going down and to the right when purchasing power. But when it comes to percentages, what we do is we come to the top of a cycle or near the top of a cycle and we say, "Right, I'm going to take 10% off the table." Then we have another day and

we take another 10% off the table. Now, this is where it gets complicated. You have to determine what percentage you're going to take from what coin and at what frequency. as an example, when we get to the top of the cycle with Ethereum, as an example, you might say, I'm going to take 20% off the table every 7 days. So, when we get to $10,000 per Ethereum, if we think that's the top, we can't be sure. We say, right, I've made I've tripled my money, quadrupled my money. Let's take 20% off the table in 7 days. I take another 20% off, then another 20%. And because you're taking a percentage off the table, you can actually do that indefinitely because it's like cutting a piece of paper in half. You cut it in half, then cut it in half, and cut it in half. But you're now

only doing with a percentage. A percentage is a percentage. So ultimately, no one's going to be able to pick the exact top. Don't feel bad or guilty or shameful that you're not going to be able to pick the exact top because no one can even if they say they can. Don't feel guilty about taking profits. It's your responsibility to take your profits. And if you don't take your profits, my crypto brothers and sisters, I'm going to take them and I'm going to make no apology for it. But I I share it with you now. Get ready to take the profits off the table. You can sell in one hit. You can take percentages off, which I I actually personally recommend and prefer. Hang on. I don't recommend because that would be financial advice and I don't give financial advice here because I'm not a financial adviser or

planner. But ultimately, if you can take that percentage off every day, every week, every 3 days, and you dollar cost average out of your position, you've made a lot of money. Now, the last thing I'll add is this is when it comes to tax, Canada's uh Canada, America, England, Australia's tax systems are very similar. This is not tax advice, but I highly recommend you all look into this. If you've held the asset for more than 12 months, you only pay tax on half of the profits. If you've p held the asset for less than 12 months, then you pay tax on all of the profits. And for many people who have only been into crypto for the last year, this is actually quite a big thing to consider.

For me, most of my bags I've held for many years and dollar cost averaged in. So, it doesn't really affect me because I've held it for more than 12 months. But for some of my positions, if I've been in there for less than 12 months and I'm about to press sell and I realize, oh, the 12 month mark is only 30 days away, it's like, if I hold this for 30 more days, then my tax bill is cut in half. I'm going to hold the 30 more days. However, because it's crypto and anything can happen. I hold it for 30 more days and when it gets to day 29, it drops 80%. And congratulations, I've just saved 50% on my tax, but I've just lost 80% on my position. And this is where things can get a bit crazy, which ultimately comes back to this. Just

dollar cost average out. You'll be fine. Profits are profits. Don't discriminate against profits. >> Yeah. I think my best piece of advice to everyone is just have an exit plan. as you said, you know, chapter in your book is dedicated towards that. And whether you you do an exit plan that's similar to yours, I love the simplicity of that. Like pick your pick your top sale number and then sell out. I definitely dollar cost average out or whether your exit plan is selling a percentage on the way up, whatever it is, just have an exit plan and just talk to chat GPT. It's amazing.

>> The easiest tool in the world to just sit down with. Tell ChatGpt what your portfolio is. tell it where you live to consider tax. Like just, you know, don't trust JGBT. It's not the ultimate source, but it's a great starting point for everybody if you don't already have an exit plan. If you do have an exit plan, I would love to hear it. Uh join the pro community because we're talking about exit plans all the time right now. Uh Adam, pleasure to get you on the show today. Really appreciate you joining us. >> Jay, fantastic. And just before I go, I should mention that even L Davis referenced some of your work on one of his streams recently. So the Milk Road, you're doing a good job. Thanks for having me.

>> Thanks. Really appreciate you joining us. I got to remind you all as always today's episode is financial advice. I'm not your financial adviser. Adam's not your financial adviser. If you need help with any of your investments, you should speak to a professional. Today's episode is for educational andformational purposes only. And if you want to do me a favor, smash that like button, give us a follow, give us a review. We'll see you guys back again next time. Have a great day, y'all. If y'all are making swaps or trades right now, highly recommend you check out Milkroad Swap. This is a DEX that we built in partnership with Cow Protocol. Why do we build it? Not to make money, just honestly. So we could have a place to do our swaps for the lowest fees that we could find. This is the fees on Ethereum, Arbitum, and Bass are only.15%

fees. Uh this is a huge difference from uh other centralized exchanges that charge half a percent or even up to 1.2% fees on their swaps. Also, you can swap on Salana all at swap.mmillgrow.com. Check it out today. You won't be upset. and you can join me in my favorite place to make swaps on chain. As always, if you liked today's episode, please hit subscribe and make sure you follow us so you don't miss out on the next one. There's also a link in the description to our free 5-minute daily newsletter where we simplify crypto for you while making you laugh. And if you're willing to step up your crypto investing game, we're going to also leave a link for

Milk Road Pro. You get access to our portfolio where you can see exactly what we are buying. This is your number one resource to help you invest successfully in crypto. One final note, this show is for educational purposes only and nothing we say is financial advice. Investing in crypto or any asset is risky and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose. Thanks so much for listening in my friends. Have a wicked awesome